Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has not polled the Florida Senate race since the weekend before the late-August primary, but the outlook remains the same: with independent Charlie Crist and actual Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek splitting Democrats, Republican Marco Rubio is cruising to a double-digit win in a three-way contest. If Meek were to drop out at this late stage, however, the gap between Crist and Rubio would vanish.
Rubio has 44% to Crist’s 33% and Meek’s 21%. Amid speculation that a deal may be in place for Meek to exit the race, this poll confirms the hunch that the result would be a dead heat between the remaining two, with Crist and Rubio each at 46%. Virtually all of Meek’s independent support would move to Crist, but only some of his Democratic support. Democrats are split in the three-way, Crist at 42% and Meek at 41%, and Crist wins independents 50-27-19 over Rubio and Meek. Against just Rubio, Crist would win Democrats only 69-20 and independents 66-31, versus Rubio’s 80-14 lead with the GOP. Republicans make up almost as much of the electorate, at 40%, as Democrats’ 41%.
Part of Rubio clinging onto a healthy lead and even a tie in the two-way with Crist is that the enthusiasm gap for Republicans has grown since August, from almost 6 points to almost 10 points. President Obama won the state by 2.5 points in 2008, but John McCain voters outnumber the president’s supporters by 7 points in this fall’s likely electorate, versus 3 last time. If this were 2008, Crist would still have only a third of the vote, with Rubio slightly less and Meek slightly more than they have now. But Crist would be leading Rubio by a 49-43 margin head-to-head.
“Marco Rubio’s been sitting on a solid lead for weeks now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will stay that way as long as the Democratic vote remains pretty evenly divided between now and the election. Unless Crist or Meek can break away with Democrats down the stretch this one will be an early call on election night.”
PPP surveyed 448 likely Florida voters from October 9th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Independent
Charlie Crist, Democrat Kendrick Meek, and
Republican Marco Rubio. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 33%
Kendrick Meek ………………………………………… 21%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 If the candidates for US Senate were just
Independent Charlie Crist and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 If the candidates for US Senate were just
Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Kendrick Meek ………………………………………… 41%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Charlie Crist’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kendrick Meek?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Would you prefer that Democrats or
Republicans were in control of the Senate in
the next Congress?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 43%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you think Charlie Crist cares more about
doing what’s best for Florida or what’s best for
Charlie Crist?
What’s best for Florida……………………………… 39%
What’s best for Charlie Crist ……………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you support or oppose drilling for oil off the
coast of Florida?
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
