Raleigh, N.C. – Charlie Crist had better hope Jeff Greene pulls off a miraculous comeback in his primary against Kendrick Meek if the Republican-cum-independent governor hopes to edge GOP nominee Marco Rubio in the general election Senate contest. Among likely voters, Rubio has a slim 37-36 lead over Crist if Greene is the Democratic nominee, but Rubio pulls ahead 40-32 if Meek wins tonight.
Greene gets only 13% of the vote, with Libertarian Alex Snitker at 4%, and 10% undecided. But Crist’s Democratic support tanks if Meek emerges victorious; Meek would get 17%, with Snitker at 3%, and only 8% undecided. Crist pulls a 48% plurality of Democrats, with a 2:1 lead over Greene’s 24%, Rubio’s 10%, Snitker’s 5%, and 13% undecided. But Meek narrowly edges Crist among Democrats, 39-38, with Rubio at 11%, Snitker at 2%, and only 10% undecided. Rubio also does slightly better among Republicans with Meek in the race, 69-20 over Crist, versus 64-21 with Greene. Crist leads independents by the same 16-point margin over Rubio regardless of the Democratic choice. In fact, he gets a slim majority or near majority, 50% or 49%.
In PPP’s last poll of frequent voters in July, Crist led Rubio 38-29-13 over Greene and 35-29-17 over Meek. But Republicans now have a 44-42 turnout edge in the likely electorate, versus a 40-40 tie in July, while the share of unaffiliateds has decreased from 20% to 14%. The Republicans who do plan to show up are even more unified around Rubio than previously. And while Rubio’s favorability among the July sample was 31-46, and Crist’s job approval 44-41, those figures are now almost reversed: 40-37 and 42-44. President Obama’s job approval rating is now only 39-55, versus 45-49 in July.
“Charlie Crist had been looking good after switching parties, but Republicans are ginned up by Marco Rubio, hardly any independents plan to show up, and Kendrick Meek’s likely victory tonight could kill the tri-partisan coalition Crist had been building,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 567 likely Florida voters on August 21st and 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Charlie Crist’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Greene?
Favorable……………. 19%
Unfavorable ………… 40%
Not sure ……………… 41%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kendrick Meek?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Snitker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Independent Charlie Crist, Democrat Jeff
Greene, Republican Marco Rubio, and
Libertarian Alex Snitker, who would you vote
for?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 36%
Jeff Greene…………………………………………….. 13%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Alex Snitker…………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Independent Charlie Crist, Democrat Kendrick
Meek, Republican Marco Rubio, and
Libertarian Alex Snitker, who would you vote
for?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 32%
Kendrick Meek ………………………………………… 17%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40%
Alex Snitker…………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If Charlie Crist is elected to the Senate, do you
think he should caucus with the Democrats or
the Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 41%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Would you vote for Charlie Crist this fall if he
committed to caucusing with the Democrats in
the Senate?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 Would you vote for Charlie Crist this fall if he
committed to caucusing with the Republicans
in the Senate?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 36%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Do you support or oppose drilling for oil off the
coast of Florida?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
George LeMieux’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 13%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Conservative…………………………………………… 41%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q21 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
