Raleigh, N.C. – Almost three months since PPP last polled Nevada, Republican gubernatorial contender Brian Sandoval still has 52% of the vote, but his Democratic opponent, Rory Reid, has crept closer, from 38% to 43%.
The closing of the gap has come entirely from Reid consolidating his Democratic support. He was up only 70-17 with his base in July, with 12% undecided. Sandoval, at the same time, had already locked up his partisans, at 86-7. But now Reid almost matches Sandoval, 82-13 to the Republican’s 88-9. Sandoval’s lead with independents remains an insurmountable gulf, at 62-33, slightly up from 55-28.
The pro-Republican enthusiasm gap of about 10 points has actually remained relatively steady since July, when in some states Democrats have become more or less enthused about voting as the election approaches. But if this were 2008, this would be a nail-biter, with each candidate at 48%, Sandoval with just slightly more than Reid.
Reid is overcoming a 26-point differential between the two candidates’ favorability ratings, with the Democrat at 38-44 and Sandoval at 52-32. Both candidates have become more popular by about the same amount since July, Reid up from 34-48 and Sandoval from 42-31. Sandoval’s impressive personal numbers seem to override Nevadans’ dislike of their current Republican governor, the scandal-plagued Jim Gibbons, who remains tied with Ed Rendell and Pat Quinn for the third least popular of 31 governors on which PPP has polled in 2010.
“The good news for Rory Reid is that he’s gaining support,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The bad news for him is that Brian Sandoval is remaining steady over the 50% mark. This still looks like a very tough office for Democrats to pick up.”
PPP surveyed 504 likely Nevada voters from October 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Rory Reid and Republican Brian Sandoval. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Rory Reid……………………………………………….. 43%
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rory Reid?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Sandoval?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jim
Gibbons’ job performance?
Approve ……………… 25%
Disapprove………….. 61%
Not sure ……………… 14%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
