Raleigh, N.C. – If New Hampshire’s 2012 Republican presidential primary had been held Tuesday, former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, would have routed a more than seven-candidate field with 41% of the vote, almost 30% more than anyone else. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are way behind at 12% each, with Mike Huckabee at 10%, Ron Paul at 8%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, “someone else” at 3%, and Mitch Daniels at 2%, with 7% undecided.
In July, in a sample of usual GOP primary voters, rather than likely voters in this year’s primary, Romney also dominated, with 31% to Gingrich’s 14%, Paul’s 13%, Huckabee’s 12%, Palin’s 9%, unnamed others’ 5%, Pawlenty’s 3%, and Daniels’ 1%.
Romney trounces the others across the board. While he gets 39% to Paul’s 16% among the 22% who say a Palin endorsement is a negative, he also beats even Palin herself among the 31% who say they would be more likely to go along with Palin’s nod, at 33% to Palin’s 28%. Romney also pulls 40% of Republicans, 42% of independents, 47% of moderates, 38% of conservatives, 36% of the third who call themselves Tea Partiers, 42% of non-Tea Partiers, 29% of the 30% who think the GOP is currently too liberal, 44% of the 17% who think it is too conservative, and 47% of the 46% who think it is about right.
In a primary won by Palin’s endorsee for U.S. Senate, Kelly Ayotte, it is no surprise that the former Alaska governor does better than in July, but even more surprising is how much better Romney does among the much more conservative sample, when he usually performs best with moderates.
“Mitt Romney continues to be the strong early front runner for the 2012 Republican primary in New Hampshire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point he’s showing the ability to appeal to both moderates and conservatives that would be necessary for him to win there, but of course we’ve seen repeatedly in Republican primaries this year that things can change very fast.”
PPP surveyed 1,134 likely Republican primary voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 10%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who was endorsed by Sarah Palin,
or would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 22%
Makes no difference ………………………………… 47%
Q3 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 30%
Too conservative……………………………………… 17%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q6 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 67%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
