Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney continues to win a lot of test matchups in early and delegate-rich states for the 2012 Republican presidential primary race, but Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich also have reason to boast in results from three new PPP polls, demonstrating that a possible cultural divide is looming.

In Michigan, where Romney’s father George was a three-term governor, Romney is well ahead of the pack at 30% to Palin’s 17%, Gingrich’s 16%, Huckabee’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 8%, and unnamed others’ 6%.  With no “someone else” option, the candidate order and relative margins were very similar in May.

In California, Romney leads by a narrower 24-21 margin over Gingrich, with Palin at 18%, Huckabee at 17%, Paul at 6%, and “someone else” at 5%.  In an example of how little these early tests mean, and how close the four major candidates are bunched together, Gingrich actually led with 28% to Romney’s 25% in May, with the others close together in the teens.

In West Virginia, Huckabee is on top at 27% to Palin’s 24%, Gingrich’s 16%, Romney’s 13%, Paul’s 6%, and 5% from others.  The Mountain State is the rare state, ironically, where Palin performs better among women than men, though Huckabee usually does, and Gingrich and Romney typically win men.  West Virginia is the only of these three states with a majority-female GOP primary electorate, and because Palin and Huckabee win women by larger margins than they do men, they pull ahead here. 

“Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin have a folksy, conservative appeal that helps them and Newt Gingrich top Mitt Romney, who may be seen as an upper-crust Yankee, in blue-collar, rural West Virginia and first-caucus Iowa, while Romney has prevailed in early primaries New Hampshire and Nevada and blue states California and Michigan,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 553 West Virginia Republican primary voters, for a margin of error of +/-4.2%, from September 18^th to 19^th; 400 Michigan Republican primary voters, for a margin of error of +/-4.9%, from September 17^th to 19^th; and 400 California Republican primary voters, for a margin of error of +/-4.9%, from September 14^th to 16^th.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

California Survey Results:

Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q4 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

Michigan Survey Results:

Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Someone else…………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea
Party’ movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 71%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you personally identify as a member of the
‘Tea Party’ movement?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q4 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 32%
Too conservative……………………………………… 15%
About right ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 71%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%

West Virginia Survey Results:

Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 Do you think the national Republican Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 27%
Too conservative……………………………………… 11%
About right ……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 70%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q5 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%