Polls

Romney up five in Montana

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
President Obama is in worse shape in Montana than he was four years ago against John McCain.  As part of his near landslide nationally, he lost this usually Republican state by only two points.  Now, he trails Mitt Romney by five.  But that is half the deficit Obama faced just five months ago.

Romney leads Obama 48-43, down from a 50-40 advantage when PPP last polled the state in November.  Worse for Romney is that his soon-to-be-vanquished intraparty foe Ron Paul actually leads Obama by eight points (49-41).  Obama is able to keep it relatively close here because he basically ties Romney with the plurality independents, while Paul leads by 22 points.

At this point, Romney is far more popular than Paul with Republicans, and has two-thirds of the vote in the caucus, while Paul only maintains the quarter of the vote he got in the three-way 2008 caucus.  But with independents, Romney has a lot of work to do, and this is true and more problematic for him in swing states where Obama is doing just as well as he did in 2008 because of Romney’s toxicity with independents and Democrats.  That is on top of lingering doubts with some partisan Republicans who were not behind him in the primary battle. 

Paul’s libertarian brother Gary Johnson could present a problem for Romney, particularly in the western states.  Johnson’s presence on a third-party ballot line would bring Romney’s lead down to two points over Obama, with Johnson pulling 8%.  That is because he lowers Romney’s share of the GOP vote from 92% to 83% while hardly touching Obama’s grasp of his party.

“Barack Obama probably missed out on his best chance to win Montana in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the race there is still closer than you would expect it to be.”

PPP surveyed 934 Montana voters, including 403 usual Republican primary voters, from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.2%, and +/-4.9% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q9 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for? (Asked of 403 Republican
primary voters)
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 25%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 66%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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