Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s in a strong position to win this weekend in South Carolina, and he’s in an even stronger position to follow it up with a big win in Florida. Our first Sunshine State poll of 2012 finds Romney with a 15 point lead at 41% to Newt Gingrich’s 26% with Rick Santorum at 11%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out the field.
Romney’s lead expands further when you look only at voters whose minds are completely made up, to 48-27 over Gingrich. 71% of his voters say they’ll definitely cast their ballot for him, compared to only 61% who say the same for Gingrich.
There’s been an enormous shift in Florida since PPP last polled the state right after Thanksgiving. Romney’s gained 24 points, going from 17% to 41%. Meanwhile Gingrich has dropped 21 points, going from 47% to 26%.
Romney has extremely impressive favorability numbers in the state with 68% of Republicans seeing him positively to only 24% with a negative opinion. And even if most of his opponents were to drop out before the primary, Romney would still be in a good shape. In hypothetical head to head match ups he leads Gingrich 50-38, Santorum 59-29, Perry 69-21, and Paul 76-17.
Romney leads Gingrich 42-25 as the candidate voters most trust on the economy. And as much as he’s been attacked for his business record it’s proving to be an undeniable asset with primary voters- 70% have a favorable opinion of it to only 18% with a negative one.
“Our current polling suggests Mitt Romney is the man to beat in both South Carolina and Florida,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The top concern of voters this year is the economy and Romney is the candidate they trust most on that issue. He’s also managed to neutralize social conservatives. The GOP nomination contest may be functionally over by the end of the month.”
PPP surveyed 572 likely Republican primary voters from January 14th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt
Romney, Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer,
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 26%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 11%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 64%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 36%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 28%
Q5 Which of the Republican candidates do you
trust the most on social issues like abortion
and gay marriage?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 21%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Which of the Republican candidates do you
trust the most on foreign policy issues?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Which of the Republican candidates do you
trust the most on economic issues?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney’s record in business?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q15 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for President to be Mitt
Romney or someone else?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else…………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 76%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q18 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 69%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q19 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 59%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q20 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Jeb Bush, or does it not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 30%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 28%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q21 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Marco Rubio, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 40%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 23%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q22 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Rick Scott, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 12%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 41%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q23 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Tim Tebow, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 16%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 32%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Tebow?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q25 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Rick Scott and Tim Tebow, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 47%
Tim Tebow ……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q26 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs, the economy…………………………………… 29%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 40%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 3%
Social issues…………………………………………… 5%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 2%
Foreign policy, national security…………………. 9%
Something else ……………………………………….. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q27 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
More concerned about a candidate’s ability to
beat Barack Obama………………………………….57%
Their positions on the issues …………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q28 Who do you think will win the Republican
nomination for President: Newt Gingrich, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum,
Buddy Roemer, or someone else?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q29 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Q31 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q32 If you are of Cuban heritage, press 1. If you are
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage, press 2. If
white, press 3. If other, press 4.
Cuban heritage ……………………………………….. 4%
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage…………….. 3%
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q33 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q34 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 45%
Are not …………………………………………………… 55%