Raleigh, N.C. – Though Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are surging after their recent debate performances, the biggest beneficiary of recent changes in the dynamics of the Republican presidential race is Mitt Romney, who now leads in PPP’s GOP primary polls in the last two months nationally and in all five of the earliest nominating contests.
When PPP last polled Florida in late March, Romney was knotted with Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich for the lead at 18%, with Sarah Palin close behind at 15%. Since then, Huckabee has declined a bid and Gingrich has seen his standing nosedive across the country. That now leaves Romney atop the heap at 27%, followed by Palin and Bachmann at 17%, Cain at 10%, Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Bachmann was at only 7% in the previous poll, and Cain was not tested. Pawlenty has not improved at all here, placing at 6% last time. His high profile has not made nearly the impact Bachmann’s and Cain’s have.
If Palin decides not to run, it would boost Bachmann and Cain most of all, but still leave Romney in the lead with 29% to Bachmann’s 22%, Cain’s 14%, Gingrich’s 10%, Paul’s 8%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman still at 2%. This poll was taken prior to Huntsman’s official entry into the race, but he has not yet placed above the low single digits even with wide media speculation of his candidacy.
In a sort of “field of dreams,” the state’s former Gov. Jeb Bush would lead at 27%, with Romney at 17%, Palin at 14%, Chris Christie and Bachmann at 12%, Rudy Giuliani at 6%, Paul Ryan at 4%, and Pawlenty at 2%. Giuliani staked his ill-fated candidacy on the state in 2008, and would fare even worse now.
“Every poll we do now is cementing Mitt Romney’s front runner status,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The bigger story might be Bachmann’s rise after what was generally seen as a strong performance in last week’s debate.”
PPP surveyed 377 usual Florida Republican primary voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q18 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 17%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q19 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 22%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 14%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q20 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 27%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 6%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 2%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 3%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 14%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%
