Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney. Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.
It’s clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he’s at +33 (64/31).
Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. In Iowa Santorum’s persistently high favorability ratings were a precursor to his late surge. But as popular as he is, he’s only gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week. It seems unlikely that he’ll be able to break into the top two.
The backbone of Romney’s support in Florida is senior citizens. He’s getting 50% of their voters with Gingrich at only 28%. Romney also appears to have a pretty good sized lead in the bank. Among those who have already voted he’s at 45% to 35% for Gingrich.
If you want a clue as to why Romney releasing his tax returns hasn’t hurt him one little bit in Florida consider this: 68% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of rich people to only 8% with a negative one. Romney’s up 47-32 among those who like rich people. In a GOP primary it’s an asset to be rich and successful, not a liability.
“Florida Republicans have been in a zig zag pattern over the last two weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt had a solid lead, then Newt surged into first place himself, and now it’s gone right back to Mitt with a solid lead.”
PPP surveyed 387 likely Republican primary voters on January 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 32%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 15%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 79%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 21%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were Adam
Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV,
Mike McCalister, and Craig Miller, who would
you vote for?
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 4%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 6%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 36%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 5%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 46%
Q10 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 16%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of rich people?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 Would you support or oppose establishing a
colony on the Moon?
Support ………………………………………………….. 22%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 How concerned are you that Mitt Romney
keeps some of his wealth overseas, including
holdings in the Cayman Islands and a recently
closed Swiss bank account?
Major concerns ……………………………………….. 14%
Some concerns……………………………………….. 15%
No concerns at all ……………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 36%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q19 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 39%
Are not …………………………………………………… 61%
Q20 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 65%
Q21 If you are of Cuban heritage, press 1. If you are
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage, press 2. If
white, press 3. If other, press 4.
Cuban …………………………………………………… 4%
Hispanic non Cuban…………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q22 Did you watch the debate on Thursday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
