Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney has a significant lead in New Hampshire, getting 35% there to 19% for Ron Paul, 17% for Newt Gingrich, 13% for Jon Huntsman, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Santorum, 2% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
Romney’s doing well with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate in the state. It’s a rare place where he’s winning Tea Party voters, 29-21 over Ron Paul. He’s getting a full 50% of the vote with seniors, who will be a significant part of the vote. Voters think he has run the strongest campaign in the state (by a 35-12 margin over Paul), that he has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama (by a 38-14 margin over Gingrich), and there’s also a certain feeling of inevitability about his victory in New Hampshire. 41% think he will win the state’s primary to 12% for Gingrich with no one else in double digits.
Our New Hampshire poll reinforces our Iowa survey from last night showing Newt Gingrich’s support fading away. Only 42% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one. Gingrich is less popular in New Hampshire now than he was in the spring when he had a 45/36 favorability.
Because it seems like there’s some possibility Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum could come to the end of their roads in Iowa we also tested a 4 way GOP contest between just Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman. In that scenario Romney gets 37% to 21% for Paul, 20% for Gingrich, and 15% for Huntsman.
“Our new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire are very good news for Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s headed for an easy win in New Hampshire and has a very good chance to get one in Iowa as well. That one two punch would probably end the Republican nomination fight before it even really starts.”
PPP surveyed 1,235 likely Republican primary voters from December 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 13%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 19%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 65%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 35%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 10%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates at the time of the New
Hampshire primary were just Newt Gingrich,
Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 21%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 Do you think that Barack Obama was born in
the United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 53%
He was not……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Would you support or oppose repealing New
Hampshire’s law allowing same-sex
marriages?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q15 Did you watch the debate in Iowa on Thursday
night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 50%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Q16 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary, or did you not vote in a
primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 14%
Republican primary………………………………….. 71%
Didn’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 16%
Q17 (Among Republican primary voters:) Did you
vote for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike
Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, or
someone else in the 2008 primary, or do you
not remember?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 8%
Q18 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 39%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 30%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 4%
Social issues…………………………………………… 5%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 4%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 5%
Someone else…………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q19 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 35%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q20 Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 34%
He does not ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q21 Do you think that Jon Huntsman has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 48%
He does not ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q22 Do you think that Ron Paul has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 69%
He does not ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q23 Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong
principles, or not?
He does …………………………………………………. 51%
He does not ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q24 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 9%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 24%
Q25 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 36%
Some attention………………………………………… 33%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q26 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….60%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 10%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q27 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in New Hampshire: very important,
somewhat important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 21%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 33%
Not important at all…………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican establishment?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q29 Who do you think has run the strongest
campaign in New Hampshire?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 10%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 0%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%
Q30 Who do you think is going to win the New
Hampshire primary?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 0%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q31 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Herman Cain, or would
it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 7%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 27%
Woudn’t make a difference ……………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q32 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q33 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
