Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don’t suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney’s net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).
Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He’s up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with ‘very conservative’ voters.
Since the primary’s gotten boring and there’s a glut of Obama/Romney polls out there we decided to skip ahead and take a super early look at the 2016 primaries.
The Democratic nomination at this point is Hillary Clinton’s for the taking if she wants it. She has an amazing 86/10 favorability rating with Democratic voters. In a dream field Clinton gets 57% to 14 for Joe Biden, 6% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Russ Feingold, 2% for Mark Warner, and 1% each for Martin O’Malley and Brian Schweitzer.
If Clinton didn’t run but Biden did he’d be the leader with 32% to 18% for Cuomo, 8% for Warren, 6% for Feingold, 2% each for O’Malley and Warner, and 1% for Schweitzer. Biden’s favorability is 70/21. And in a Biden and Clintonless field Cuomo leads with 27% to 9% for Warren, 8% for Feingold, 4% each for O’Malley and Warner, and 2% for Schweitzer.
We also looked at the 2016 Republican field if Romney is not the nominee again. There’s a clear top tier consisting of Chris Christie at 21% and Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush at 17%. Rick Santorum’s further back at 12% and Marco Rubio at 10%, Paul Ryan at 7%, Rand Paul at 4%, and Bobby Jindal at 3% round out the names we tested.
PPP surveyed 742 Republican primary voters and 620 Democratic primary voters from April 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the Republican survey is +/-3.6% and for the Democrats it’s +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 48%
Are not …………………………………………………… 52%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q16 If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016,
and the Republican candidates for President
were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee,
Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most
like to see as the GOP candidate for
President?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 17%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 21%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 4%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 7%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 12%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Democratic Party Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 86%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 14%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 57%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 5%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 6%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q10 If Hillary Clinton didn’t run for President in
2016, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 32%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 18%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 6%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 32%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 27%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 8%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 4%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 9%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 46%
Q12 Generally speaking, would you like the
Democratic nominee for President in 2016 to
be a man or a woman, or does it not make a
difference to you?
Man……………………………………………………….. 10%
Woman ………………………………………………….. 14%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 76%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 30%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 13%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
