Raleigh, N.C. – It looks like Mitt Romney is headed for a decisive victory in the Florida primary tonight, but beyond the Sunshine State, he has more work to do to wrap things up. Newt Gingrich still looks pretty strong in Missouri and Ohio, but the candidate with the greatest potential to challenge Romney, in the Midwest at least, is Rick Santorum.
Santorum is by far the best liked of the four remaining candidates in these two states. And not only does he do well in the horseraces, but if the race is winnowed to him and Romney, he would fare significantly better than Gingrich would against the frontrunner.
In Missouri, held a week from today, Santorum has a 63-21 favorability spread to Gingrich’s 52-32, Romney’s 46-36, and Paul’s 28-57. On the actual primary ballot, for which Gingrich did not qualify, Santorum leads with 45% to Romney’s 34% and Paul’s 13%. In the caucus, in which Gingrich can compete, Santorum falls to second at 28% behind the former speaker’s 30% and ahead of Romney’s 24% and Paul’s 11%. Head-to-head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37. That is because Santorum’s supporters only go for Gingrich by eight points over Romney, but Gingrich’s vote for Santorum by 28 points.
In Ohio, which will be held on Super Tuesday (March 6th), Santorum’s favorability rating is 59-24, compared to Romney’s and Gingrich’s 47-37 and Paul’s 31-52. The primary is a three-way race between Gingrich (26%), Romney (25%), and Santorum (22%), with Paul at 11%. Gingrich would top Romney, 42-39, but Santorum would, 45-38.
In the Missouri Senate primary, John Brunner has seriously upped his name recognition and made it a real contest since PPP last polled the race last September. He has tripled his support from 6% to 18%, while Sarah Steelman is down from 40% to 32% and Todd Akin from 29% to 23%.
PPP surveyed 574 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from January 27th to 29th and 626 usual Ohio Republican primary voters from January 28th to 29th. The margin of error for the Missouri survey is +/-4.1%, and +/-3.9% for the Ohio survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Missouri Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Schweich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Bill Randles, Dave Spence, and Tom
Schweich, who would you vote for?
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 10%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 7%
Tom Schweich…………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for Governor
were just Bill Randles and Dave Spence, who
would you vote for?
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 15%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman,
who would you vote for?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 23%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q14 If the Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor were Mike Carter, Peter Kinder, Brad
Lager, and Luann Ridgeway, who would you
vote for?
Mike Carter …………………………………………….. 5%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 37%
Brad Lager ……………………………………………… 12%
Luann Ridgeway ……………………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q15 The candidates on the ballot for the Missouri
primary will only be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q16 If the candidates in the Republican caucus for
President were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt
Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you
vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q17 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 45%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 55%
Q18 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%
Q19 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .42%
Newt Gingrich …….. .43%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q20 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .60%
Ron Paul ……………. .27%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q21 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .37%
Rick Santorum……. .50%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Ohio Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 26%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 44%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 56%
Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 41%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .39%
Newt Gingrich …….. .42%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .61%
Ron Paul ……………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .38%
Rick Santorum……. .45%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1 If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
