Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP’s newest Michigan poll. He’s at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney’s gained 6 points, while Santorum’s just stayed in place.
Romney will go into election day with a large lead in the bank. Only 16% of Michigan voters say they’ve already cast their ballots, but Romney has a whooping 62-29 advantage over Santorum with that group. Santorum actually leads Romney 39-34 with those who are planning to cast their votes on Tuesday, but he’d need to win election day voters by even more than that to neutralize the advantage Romney’s built up.
The last week of the campaign in Michigan has seen significant damage to Santorum’s image with GOP voters in the state. His net favorability has declined 29 points from +44 (67/23) to now only +15 (54/39). Negative attacks on Romney meanwhile have had no negative effect with his favorability steady at +20 (57/37)..
One place Santorum may have hurt himself in the last week is an overemphasis on social issues. 69% of voters say they’re generally more concerned with economic issues this year to only 17% who pick social issues. And with the overwhelming majority of voters more concerned about the economy, Romney leads Santorum 45-30.
Romney’s key base of support in Michigan, as it has been many places, is seniors. He has a 50-34 advantage with them and since most of those who have already voted fall into the over 65 category, that’s a big part of why he has such a large lead with that group.
“Momentum in Michigan is completely on Mitt Romney’s side,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s amassed a large lead with absentee voters and it will take a huge turnout on election day from Santorum voters to overcome that.”
PPP will release final numbers on the Republican Presidential contest in Michigan Monday night.
PPP surveyed 421 likely Republican primary voters on February 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 16%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 84%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 0%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 62%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 29%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 77%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 23%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 Did you watch the debate in Arizona on
Wednesday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%
Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer to vote
for a candidate you agree with most on the
issues or a candidate who you think is best
able to beat Barack Obama?
A candidate you agree with most on the
issues …………………………………………………….57%
A candidate you think is best able to beat
Obama……………………………………………………33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 Are you more concerned with a candidate’s
position on economic issues like jobs,
spending, taxes, and bailouts, or a candidate’s
position on social issues like abortion, birth
control, gay marriage, and immigration?
Economic issues……………………………………… 69%
Social issues…………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q17 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q18 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 42%
Are not …………………………………………………… 58%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 67%
Independent……………………………………………. 28%
Q20 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 74%
