Raleigh, N.C. – It sounds like Newt Gingrich will be out of the race by the time North Carolina votes and that’s just as well for him. Our newest poll finds Mitt Romney with a dominant lead in the state, polling at 48% to 30% for Gingrich and 12% for Ron Paul.
North Carolina makes yet another state where you can really see the Republican base unifying around Romney. He has a 61/25 favorability rating, up from 51/32 just two weeks ago. And he’s winning with the groups of the GOP electorate that have typically confounded him. He has a 46-38 lead over Gingrich with a Tea Partiers, a 44-36 advantage with Evangelicals, and he’s up 48-36 with voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ It’s over.
So is the Republican primary for Governor. GOP voters aren’t looking for an alternative to Pat McCrory to begin with. 66% have a favorable opinion of him to only 9% with a negative one. And what little opposition there is to him is split pretty evenly between 5 different candidates. McCrory’s at 67% to 3% for Jim Harney, 2% for Jim Mahan and Paul Wright, and just 1% each for Scott Jones and Charles Kenneth Moss. 23% continue to be undecided.
A runoff is looking like a very real possibility in the race for Lieutenant Governor, with three of the candidates clustered within three points of each other. Dale Folwell leads with 15% to 12% for Dan Forest and Tony Gurley. Grey Mills at 8% is still within range of the top two and only Arthur Jason Rich at 2% looks like a total non factor. Gurley at 32% in the Triangle is doing the best of any candidate in a particular region, but Folwell and Forest are running ahead of him everywhere else.
In another race that looks like it could be headed for a runoff, Debra Goldman and Greg Dority continue to hold the top two spots in the contest for State Auditor. Goldman’s at 12% to 11% for Dority with Fern Shubert at 7% and Rudy Wright and Joseph Hank DeBragga rounding out the field at 4% each. Goldman and Dority have persistently been at the top of the heap since we began polling this race.
PPP surveyed 521 Republican primary voters from April 20th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%/ This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat
McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jim Harney……………………………………………… 3%
Scott Jones…………………………………………….. 1%
Jim Mahan ……………………………………………… 2%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 67%
Charles Kenneth Moss……………………………… 1%
Paul Wright …………………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony
Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dale Folwell ……………………………………………. 15%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 12%
Tony Gurley ……………………………………………. 12%
Grey Mills……………………………………………….. 8%
Arthur Jason Rich ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 51%
Q8 The Republican candidates for State Auditor
are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority,
Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joseph Hank DeBragga……………………………. 4%
Greg Dority …………………………………………….. 11%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 12%
Fern Shubert…………………………………………… 7%
Rudy Wright ……………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 61%
Q9 The Republican candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Bill McManus and Steve
Troxler. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill McManus ………………………………………….. 17%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 42%
Q10 The Republican candidates for Insurance
Commissioner are Mike Causey, James
McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 13%
James McCall …………………………………………. 10%
Richard Morgan ………………………………………. 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 60%
Q11 The Republican candidates for Secretary of
State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn
Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 6%
A.J. Daoud……………………………………………… 6%
Kenn Gardner …………………………………………. 17%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 61%
Q12 The Republican candidates for Superintendent
of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander,
Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David
Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Richard Alexander …………………………………… 13%
Mark Crawford ………………………………………… 6%
Ray Ernest Martin ……………………………………. 5%
David Scholl……………………………………………. 4%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 57%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q14 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 66%
Are not …………………………………………………… 34%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 51%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 78%
Independent……………………………………………. 22%
Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%
Q19
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 23%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
