Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Perry has been gaining ground on Mitt Romney and overtaking him by wide margins in many states, but his entry into the race has not weakened the former GOP presidential frontrunner in what could be one of the most crucial early primaries: Florida. When PPP last polled the state in June, without Perry included, Romney led Michele Bachmann by seven points, 29-22. Now, Romney tops Perry by six, 30-24.
Perry has taken a commanding lead of the right wing of the party, and while that has not hurt Romney’s level of support, Perry’s presence and her own missteps have caused Bachmann to recede 16 points to sixth place at 6%. Herman Cain has also fallen from a third-place 14% to fifth at 7%, an indication that his straw-poll victory last weekend was not representative of the overall electorate. The others are largely in the same place, with Newt Gingrich still at 10%, Ron Paul at 8%, and Jon Huntsman up inconsequentially from 2% to 3%. Rick Santorum comes in at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%.
Romney succeeds on the formula he will need to upend Perry around the country: dominance with the 10-20% who call themselves moderate (32-15 lead over Perry), a strong lead with the center-right (36-24), and competitiveness with “very conservative” voters (trailing only 32-24). Romney is helped by the fact that the somewhat conservative are a 43% plurality in this more moderate state; they are often closer to a third of voters in other states where the most conservative voters dominate.
“Florida is probably the most important state to Mitt Romney’s hopes for winning the Republican nomination,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The fact that he’s still leading there even after Perry’s surge nationally bodes very well.”
Retired Col. Mike McCalister has a slim lead in the early race for the Senate nomination, with 17% over former Sen. George LeMieux’s 13%, former State Rep. Adam Hasner’s 9%, and businessman Craig Miller’s 3%. 58% are undecided.
PPP surveyed 472 usual Florida Republican primary voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 59%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 80%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q12 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree …………………………………………………….. 37%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 24%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q14 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q15 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux,
Mike McCalister, and Craig Miller, who would
you vote for?
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 9%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 13%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 17%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 58%
Q16 Would you like the Republican nominee for
Governor in the next election to be Rick Scott
again, or would you prefer someone else?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 53%
Someone else…………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%
Q20
Thursday Night ……………………………………….. 41%
Friday…………………………………………………….. 34%
Saturday/Sunday …………………………………….. 26%
