Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday’s polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.
The reason we don’t find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he’s winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He’s up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The problem for him is that he’s not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.
Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they’d already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he’d have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.
Almost Romney’s entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters. He has a 58-15 lead over Gingrich with them and only a 1 point advantage with the rest of the electorate. Other groups that continue to be a particular source of strength for Romney are seniors (48-32) and women (43-30).
“Mitt Romney is holding steady in our Florida polling,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like the main suspense in the state is whether he’ll win by single digits or double digits. Right now he’s pretty close to that line.”
We will have one final night of Florida tracking tomorrow, which will likely be posted between 10 and 11 PM.
PPP surveyed 733 likely Republican primary voters on January 28th and January 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 32%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 81%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 19%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were Adam
Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV,
Mike McCalister, and Craig Miller, who would
you vote for?
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 4%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 8%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 36%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 5%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 44%
Q10 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 26%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 15%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of rich people?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q12 Would you support or oppose establishing a
colony on the Moon?
Support ………………………………………………….. 23%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 How concerned are you that Mitt Romney
keeps some of his wealth overseas, including
holdings in the Cayman Islands and a recently
closed Swiss bank account?
Major concerns ……………………………………….. 16%
Some concerns……………………………………….. 16%
No concerns at all ……………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q19 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 38%
Are not …………………………………………………… 62%
Q20 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%
Q21 If you are of Cuban heritage, press 1. If you are
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage, press 2. If
white, press 3. If other, press 4.
Cuban …………………………………………………… 5%
Hispanic non Cuban…………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q22 Did you watch the debate on Thursday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 57%
No …………………………………………………………. 43%
