Polls

Romney leads, McCrory vulnerable

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

President_Primary_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – The clearest sign of Mitt Romney’s enhanced standing after Mike
Huckabee decided not to run for President may be his strength in the South. Last week
we found him with a healthy lead among Republican voters in South Carolina and this
week we find him ahead in North Carolina as well, a state where he had previously polled pretty poorly.

Romney leads in the Tar Heel state with 20% to 18% for Herman Cain, 17% for Sarah
Palin, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul, 5% for Michele
Bachmann, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.

This is the second poll this week where we’ve found Cain doing better than Palin. He is
the new darling of the far right crowd that has generally favored Palin. With voters
describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ he gets 21% to 19% for Palin, 15% for
Romney, and 14% for Gingrich. Romney holds the overall lead by cleaning up with
voters who are either centrists or just slightly right of center.

Pat McCrory has embraced the Republican legislature even as it’s gone too far to the right for the tastes of most North Carolina voters and this might explain why: 44% of primary voters would vote for a ‘more conservative’ alternative to him next year compared to only 34% who say they would vote for McCrory given that choice. There’s no question GOP voters like McCrory- his favorability with them is 56/9. But there’s still a lot of concern with the base that he’s not sufficiently conservative and his actions over the last six months make it clear that he’s trying to keep that ‘more conservative’ opponent from emerging.

“There’s an opening for an ambitious conservative Republican with fundraising ability to McCrory’s right,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His
nomination is not as inevitable as commonly thought.”

PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters from June 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q7 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 18%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q8 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 21%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q9 If the Republican primary for governor next
year were between Pat McCrory and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 34%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q13
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 17%

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