Raleigh, N.C. – If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate…but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul.
Texas really shows the extent to which GOP voters have unified around Romney over the last few weeks. When we polled the state in January Republicans were evenly divided in their feelings about him with 44% rating him favorably and 44% giving him poor marks. Now his favorability is a +43 spread at 66/23. That’s very much indicative of people jumping on board the train.
There’s a few things in the crosstabs that really stand out. Romney’s winning Tea Party voters by a 44-38 spread. But he’s still losing Evangelicals to Gingrich by a 45-40 margin. That’s indicative of those voters still being somewhat tepid toward Romney and while there’s little chance those folks would go for Barack Obama in the fall, Romney does need to worry at least a bit about whether they’re going to come out at all.
Ron Paul’s headed for an embarrassing performance in his home state. Only 37% of Texas Republicans have a favorable opinion of him to 48% with a negative one and his chances of hitting 20% even with most of the rest of the field out of the picture look minimal.
Texas looks like it will remain Republican in the general election, although it might be closer than it was in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 7 points at 50-43. John McCain took the state by 13 points in 2008. Obama leads Romney 56-34 with Hispanics and 57-35 with young voters. This is not likely to be the year Texas goes Democratic, but the trends with those groups make it seem possible it will happen some day.
“Strong might not be the word to describe Mitt Romney’s position in Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state don’t like him all that much. But he’s still the favorite for both the primary and general elections.”
PPP surveyed 591 Texas voters from April 19th to 22nd, as well as 400 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.0% and for the GOP survey it’s +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 59%
Are not …………………………………………………… 41%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 47%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rick Perry for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 45%
Romney-Perry…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
