Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney narrowly leads a divided field in the Texas Republican Presidential primary, while home state Governor Rick Perry has fallen to 3rd place.
When we polled Texas last September, Rick Perry was in the driver’s seat with 49% compared to 10% for Mitt Romney in second place. Perry now commands less than half that support in his home state, clocking in at 18% with Romney garnering 24% and Gingrich at 23%. Santorum takes 15% while fellow Texan Ron Paul comes in 5th with 12%.
Romney even leads Perry in a head-to-head matchup among Republican Texas Primary voters, 46-45 – a striking reversal from our last poll when Perry led 72-18. Romney also leads Gingrich head-to-head (43-42) and Paul (a whopping 64-25). The only candidate who beats Romney head-to-head in Texas is Rick Santorum (45-42), but it’s unclear if he’ll ever get the chance to do battle with Romney with the Republican field sufficiently narrowed.
“These numbers have to be seen as an embarrassment for Rick Perry,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s pretty bad when you get to the point where you’re not even in the top two in your own home state.”
Lt. Governor David Dewhurst continues to lead the still dormant Republican Senate primary, taking 36% to Ted Cruz’s 18%. No other candidate cracks double digits, while 31% remain undecided. Dewhurst is the only candidate that a plurality of voters know enough about to form an opinion on, with 41% holding a favorable opinion to 19% unfavorable. Among voters who say Southern Methodist is their favorite school, SMU alumnus and former player Craig James trails Dewhurst, Cruz, Joe Agris, and Tom Leppert.
PPP surveyed 559 Texas Republican primary voters from January 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Hubbard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Glenn Addison, Joe Agris, Ted Cruz, David
Dewhurst, Charles Holcomb, Craig James,
Tom Leppert, and Lela Pittenger, who would
you vote for?
Glenn Addison ………………………………………… 1%
Joe Agris………………………………………………… 2%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 18%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 36%
Charles Holcomb …………………………………….. 0%
Craig James……………………………………………. 4%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 7%
Lela Pittenger………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 31%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt
Romney, Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer,
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 15%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 43%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 57%
Q14 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 15%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 39%
Q15 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .43%
Newt Gingrich …….. .42%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q16 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .64%
Ron Paul ……………. .25%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .46%
Rick Perry ………….. .45%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q18 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .42%
Rick Santorum……. .45%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q19 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q20 Do you think Rick Perry’s campaign for
President has helped Texas’ image, hurt it, or
has it not made a difference?
Helped …………………………………………………… 13%
Hurt……………………………………………………….. 39%
Hasn’t made a difference ………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q21 Do you think Ron Paul’s campaign for
President has helped Texas’ image, hurt it, or
has it not made a difference?
Helped …………………………………………………… 19%
Hurt……………………………………………………….. 28%
Hasn’t made a difference ………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q22 Are you a fan of Baylor, Houston, Southern
Methodist, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas
Tech, UTEP, or another school?
Baylor………………… . 8%
Houston …………….. . 5%
Southern Methodist . 3%
Texas ………………… .20%
Texas A & M……….. .18%
TCU ………………….. . 6%
Texas Tech…………. . 9%
UTEP………………… . 1%
Another school/Not
a fan……………………30%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 72%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q26 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 3%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
