Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.
Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum’s viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.
Santorum’s favorability numbers haven’t really changed from a month ago. He was at 64/30 and now he’s at 62/31. But Romney’s seen quite a bit of improvement in his image, perhaps reflecting growing acceptance that he will be the nominee. His favorability has improved a net 16 points from +6 (46/40) to +22 (57/35).
Romney’s made huge in roads with the groups that have tended to fuel Santorum’s success. What was a 37 point lead for Santorum with Evangelicals is now only 10 points at 44-34. What was a 32 point advantage for him with Tea Party voters is now only 6 at 41-35. And in the greatest sign that conservatives are starting to rally around Romney a little bit, what was a 51 point deficit for him with ‘very conservative’ voters is now only 11 points at 44-33.
“The momentum in Pennsylvania is moving completely against Rick Santorum,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney has a great chance to deliver a final crushing blow to his campaign on April 24th. A home state loss would be incredibly embarrassing for Santorum.”
PPP surveyed 403 likely Republican primary voters on April 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for President are
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and
Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 38%
Are not …………………………………………………… 62%
Q13 Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural
area?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 12%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 46%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 42%
Q14 Do you think that Rick Santorum should drop
out of the Presidential race, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 39%
He should not………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 Regardless of which candidate you support, do
you believe that Rick Santorum has a realistic
chance of winning the Republican nomination
for President, or not?
He has a realistic chance………………………….. 36%
He does not ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Which of the Republican candidates for
President do you think would have the best
chance of defeating Barack Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%