Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich’s support may be drying up most places, but he’s still got enough in North Carolina to potentially cost Rick Santorum a victory in a state that’s an absolute must win for him.
Mitt Romney’s leading in North Carolina with 34% to 30% for Santorum, 17% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich dropped out of the race Santorum would take the lead with 42% to 38% for Romney and 10% for Paul. Gingrich is definitely playing a spoiler role in North Carolina.
Compared to a PPP poll two weeks ago Romney’s gained 4 points while Santorum’s stayed in place, suggesting an increasing willingness for the GOP base to unify around Romney in the wake of his wins in Maryland and Wisconsin last week.
Romney’s making serious in roads with the groups that have provided Santorum’s base of support. For instance with Tea Party voters what was a 10 point lead for Santorum a couple weeks ago is only 2 points at 32-30. There’s been a similar shift with Evangelicals, among whom Santorum’s once 10 point lead is also down to 2 points at 34-32. Meanwhile Romney’s winning by a whooping 41-9 spread with moderate voters and has his requisite strong support with seniors at 46-23.
There’s reason to believe Romney could end up taking North Carolina by a wider margin than his 4 point lead on this poll. 58% of his supporters are strongly committed to voting for him, compared to only 42% of Santorum’s who say the same thing. When you look at the race among only voters whose minds are totally made up Romney’s lead expands to 18 points at 47-29. If Santorum has a bad night on April 24th that makes his supporters further question the viability of his candidacy Romney could see his advantage in North Carolina grow some more.
“North Carolina looks like it could be the southern state where Mitt Romney finally breaks through for a victory,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Newt Gingrich is really hurting Rick Santorum there, more than in most places.”
PPP surveyed 461 likely Republican primary voters from April 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q43 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 46%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 54%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 63%
Are not …………………………………………………… 37%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q12 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent……………………………………………. 21%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
