Raleigh, N.C. – Following a dismal jobs report released earlier this month, President Obama has lost his lead in North Carolina.
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney now leads Obama 48-46 in North Carolina after trailing by 1 point (47-48) in mid-May, when the last statewide general election poll was conducted. Romney’s standing in the state has improved 7 points since April, when Obama had a 5-point lead (49-44). Romney held his last lead over Obama in October, when he led the president 46-45.
The Tar Heel State’s swing towards Romney comes as the almost certain Republican nominee has been solidified as the party’s best hope to defeat Obama in the general election. Romney has seen his favorability rating increase 12 points since main primary competitor Rick Santorum left the presidential race in April. Romney’s favorability rating in the state is now at 41%, up from 37% in May and 29% in April. Romney’s favorability rating with state Republicans is up to 71%, an increase of 2 points from May and 19 points from April.
Obama’s popularity, on the other hand, is on the decline. The president’s approval rating is down 1 point from May to 47%. The decline in the president’s approval rating can mostly be attributed to disapproval from within his own party. 76% of Democrats approve of the president’s performance, down from 80% in May. Even more troubling, 20% of Democrats support Romney in a head-to-head matchup with Obama.
Unsurprisingly, Obama still holds down the youth vote (age 18 to 29) convincingly, 54-38. But that’s the only age group Obama wins in a head-to-head matchup with Romney—the former Massachusetts governor takes the other three age groups, including the over-65 group by a 12-point margin (54-42).
“North Carolina remains one of the most closely contested swing states in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there has been a modest shift toward Mitt Romney since he wrapped up the Republican nomination.”
PPP surveyed 810 North Carolina voters from June 7th to June 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .32%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .32%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Richard Burr for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Burr ………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q12 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
