Raleigh, N.C. – As the Republican presidential field approaches its final form, Mitt Romney has taken a small lead. Though the race remains wide open, Romney takes 22% of the Republican vote to 17% for Herman Cain, 15% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, 8% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, and just 1% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney has made gains over two weeks ago when he tied Palin for the lead with 16% of the vote. Herman Cain has also gained, rising from 12% two weeks ago. Cain has surged to second place despite being one of the least recognized candidates. 34% of Republicans are unsure how they feel about Cain, almost double that of Mitt Romney.
If Palin does not run, Romney’s lead remains with 27% to 20% for Cain, 13% for Bachman, 12% for Gingrich, 10% for Pawlenty, 6% for Paul and 3% for Huntsman. A more fundamental shake up of the race would occur if unlikely candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Paul Ryan were to enter this race. In this scenario, Christie would take the lead with 18% to Romney’s 17%, Palin’s 13%, Giuliani and Bush’s 11%, Bachmann’s 8%, and Pawlenty and Ryan’s 6%.
In the presidential race, Republican voters value electability over ideology. 56% would prefer the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama, compared to 31% who would prefer the candidate with conservative positions on every issue. Romney benefits from this sentiment as he garners a strong lead with 27% of the vote among those who want a candidate with the best chance of beating Obama. On the other hand, Cain leads with 22% among those who prefer a candidate with conservative positions on every issue.
“Mitt Romney has cemented his place as the frontrunner,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the rapid rise of candidates such as Herman Cain and previously Donald Trump reveals a fluid field and a precarious position for Romney.”
PPP surveyed 544 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from June 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 17%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 20%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 18%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q9 If you had to choose between a candidate with
conservative positions on every issue and one
with the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama, which would you prefer?
Candidate with conservative positions on
every issue………………………………………………31%
One with the best chance of defeating
Obama……………………………………………………56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
