Polls

Romney leads by 1 in Iowa and New Hampshire

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack
Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to
last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire
on polls conducted the final week of September. Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and
New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But
unlike Romney’s win in the first debate this one doesn’t seem to be moving the
needle too much.

Mitt Romney’s seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa
his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our
last poll to now 48/47. He’s seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New
Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to
now 51/46. Obama’s approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last
time we polled each of these states, but now he’s dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and
47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems
to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that
front and in Iowa it’s 49/45. Voters are closely divided between the two
candidates on the issue of Libya, favoring Romney 47/46 in New Hampshire and
46/44 in Iowa. Obama does have a wide lead on women’s issues in both states,
56/39 in New Hampshire and 49/44 in Iowa.

Obama’s decline in these states  is particularly large compared to his
national drop over the last month, but it’s a reflection of the demographics in
them. Obama has fallen much further with white voters than African Americans or
Hispanics and in states like Iowa and New Hampshire where almost the entire
population is white it stands to reason that he would have a bigger decline.

 “Iowa and New Hampshire look like
toss up states now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“They’ve seen the most dramatic shifts of any states we’ve polled since Mitt
Romney’s big win in the first debate.”

PPP surveyed 1,036
likely voters in New Hampshire and 869 in Iowa from October 17th to
19th. The margin of error for the New Hampshire survey is +/-3.0% and for Iowa
it’s +/-3.3%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Iowa Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 69%

Q5 Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins is up for
retention this year. If the election was today,
would you vote yes to retain him or no to
remove him from office?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Who do you think won the Presidential debate
on Tuesday night?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q7 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on women’s issues?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 58%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 13%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Terry
Branstad or his Democratic opponent?
Terry Branstad ……. .53%
Democratic
opponent……………..34%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Tom
Harkin or his Republican opponent?
Tom Harkin…………. .45%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .54%
Disapprove…………. .28%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q17 Do you support or oppose the Bowles-Simpson
plan?
Support ……………… .20%
Oppose ……………… .10%
Not sure …………….. .70%

Q18 Do you support or oppose the Panetta-Burns
plan?
Support ……………… . 5%
Oppose ……………… .10%
Not sure …………….. .85%

Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%

Q22 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

New Hampshire Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 45%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 Who do you think won the Presidential debate
on Tuesday night?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q10 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on women’s issues?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q11 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 59%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 12%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .62%
Disapprove…………. .25%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Jeanne
Shaheen or her Republican opponent?
Jeanne Shaheen…. .48%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q17 Do you support or oppose the Bowles-Simpson
plan?
Support ……………… .28%
Oppose ……………… .11%
Not sure …………….. .61%

Q18 Do you support or oppose the Panetta-Burns
plan?
Support ……………… . 9%
Oppose ……………… .10%
Not sure …………….. .82%

Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q22 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

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