Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Florida poll finds a 5 point gain for Mitt Romney over the last
three weeks. He now leads Barack Obama by a 49/48 margin, after trailing 50-46
in late September. The shift in the race is largely attributable to independent
voters shifting their preferences. Where before Obama had a 51-40 advantage
with them, now Romney’s taken the lead by a 51/43 spread. When it comes to the
biggest issue in the election, the economy, Romney’s edge over Obama expands to
51/46 on who voters trust more.
Romney and Obama’s images have headed in difference directions since the
Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from
giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47.
Meanwhile Obama’s approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was
on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved,
now he’s in slightly negative territory at 48/50.
There’s been a fairly large shift among white voters over the last three
weeks. They’ve gone from favoring Romney by 11 points at 53-42 to 17 points at
57-40. Non-white voters are pretty steady from the last poll including
Hispanics who give Obama a slight edge at 50/47. Obama has a small
advantage with voters under 65, but Romney erases that with a 52/45 advantage
among seniors. Likewise Obama’s up with women (51-47) but Romney’s ahead by
even more with men (52-44).
Romney’s gains aren’t extending down the ballot. Bill Nelson leads Connie
Mack IV 45-37 in the US Senate race, little different from a 46-37 spread three
weeks ago. Nelson’s got a good amount of crossover support, taking 17% of the
Republican vote. And even though Obama’s lost the lead with independents,
Nelson still has a narrow advantage with them at 42-39.
“The race in Florida’s about as close as it could be right now,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney has the momentum after
his strong debate performance last week, but Barack Obama’s still very much in
it.”
PPP surveyed 791 likely
Florida voters from October 12th to 14th. The margin of error for
the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .38%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 45%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Who do you think won the Vice Presidential
debate: Joe Biden or Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 44%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 69%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 18%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 13%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or his Democratic opponent?
Rick Scott…………… .43%
Democratic
opponent……………..45%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q16 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
