Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney continues to look like the strongest Republican Presidential candidate for 2012, leading the field in Illinois and Pennsylvania.
In Illinois Romney is first with 34% to 28% for Mike Huckabee and 24% for Sarah Palin. In Pennsylvania he’s at 31% to 27% for both Huckabee and Palin. The Midwest is shaping up a strong region for the former Massachusetts Governor, as he also led in recent surveys of Ohio and Wisconsin.
Romney continues to have success in these polls based on the same formula- stay competitive with conservatives while building up an overall lead thanks to strong support from moderates.
In Pennsylvania Palin actually has the lead among conservatives with 31% to 28% for Romney and Huckabee. But Romney leads her 39-20 with moderates, fueling his four point lead.
Romney is the first choice among conservatives in Illinois with 33% to Huckabee’s 30%, but he expands that edge by leading the former Arkansas Governor 38-26 with moderates.
In both states Romney’s strongest support comes from the older voters who tend to dominate GOP primary electorates.
“The polling right now doesn’t matter very much,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But you can’t ignore the fact that Romney leads nearly all of it.”
PPP surveyed 405 Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania from March 29th to April 1st and 400 Republican primary voters in Illinois from April 1st to April 5th. The margin of error for both surveys is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Illinois Survey Results:
Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and
Mitt Romney who would you vote for? If Mike
Huckabee, press 1. If Sarah Palin, press 2. If
Mitt Romney, press 3. If you’re undecided,
press 4.
Huckabee……………………………………………….. 28%
Palin………………………………………………………. 24%
Romney …………………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q4 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 3%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Pennsylvania Survey Results:
Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and
Mitt Romney who would you vote for? If Mike
Huckabee, press 1. If Sarah Palin, press 2. If
Mitt Romney, press 3. If you’re undecided,
press 4.
Huckabee……………………………………………….. 27%
Palin………………………………………………………. 27%
Romney …………………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q4 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%