Raleigh, N.C. – New Hampshire is a nominal swing state, but it has gone blue in four of the last five presidential elections. According to PPP’s latest poll of the Granite State, Mitt Romney is the only potential GOP nominee with a shot at putting New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in play next year. Otherwise, President Obama leads by margins larger than his almost ten-point victory over John McCain in 2008.
Romney essentially ties the president, with 46% to Obama’s 47%. But the president tops Newt Gingrich 52-39, Mike Huckabee 52-38, Donald Trump 51-37, and Sarah Palin 56-34.
This is another case of Obama prevailing not because voters love him but because they do not particularly like any of the Republicans. 46% both approve and disapprove of the president’s job performance, roughly the same as his nationwide standing. But except for Romney’s 45-44 favorable-unfavorable spread, all the other candidates are in far worse shape: Huckabee at 29-52, Trump 27-60, Gingrich 24-62, and Palin 28-67.
Luckily for the president, not even the state’s Republican voters are crazy about most of the Republican candidates, so Obama earns as much or more of their vote (9-18%) as their approval (10%). Plus, his weakness on the job-approval front with Democrats (76-16) fades, as he pulls 83-90% of their vote.
The only candidate who earns more Democratic support than Obama does GOP votes is Romney, who is also the only candidate to tie the president with independents (at 44%). Obama leads the others by 16-22 points with the large 36% plurality who identify with neither party. That essentially explains the varying overall leads.
“Unless Mitt Romney gets the nomination, President Obama should easily win New Hampshire once again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This state really exemplifies the extent to which the GOP being competitive against Obama is going to depend on who they nominate.”
PPP surveyed 769 New Hampshire voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for? If
Barack Obama, press 1. If Newt Gingrich,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Obama…………………………………………………… 52%
Gingrich …………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for? If Barack
Obama, press 1. If Mike Huckabee, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Obama…………………………………………………… 52%
Huckabee……………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for? If Barack
Obama, press 1. If Sarah Palin, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Obama…………………………………………………… 56%
Palin………………………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for? If Barack
Obama, press 1. If Mitt Romney, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Obama…………………………………………………… 47%
Romney …………………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for? If
Barack Obama, press 1. If Donald Trump,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Obama…………………………………………………… 51%
Trump…………………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 42%
Obama…………………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%