Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.
Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn’t as wide as we’re finding in a lot of other states. Santorum’s at +34 (61/27), while Romney’s at +24 (58/34).
Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney’s leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he’s at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he’s only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He’s only down 13 with those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ 44-31. And he’s down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he’s losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.
Romney’s up by good sized margins in Arizona with seniors (41-32), Hispanics (41-30), women (39-31), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (43-29), and moderates (39-22).
There are two endorsements that could have a big impact in the final week of the campaign. 32% of voters would be more likely to support a Joe Arpaio endorsed candidate, compared to 24% who would be less likely to. And 25% would be more likely to support a Jan Brewer endorsed candidate, compared to 21% who would be less likely to. If Romney or Santorum could nab either of those endorsements it would be a boost.
“Mitt Romney’s holding onto a small advantage in Arizona right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big thing to watch over the next week will be whether Newt Gingrich’s supporters stick with him or jump ship to Santorum because he’s a more viable candidate. If that happens this race could get even closer.”
PPP surveyed 412 likely Republican primary voters between February 17th and 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Wil Cardon, Jeff Flake, Bryan Hackbarth, John
Lyon, Douglas McKee, and Clair Van
Steenwyk, who would you vote for?
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 7%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 56%
Bryan Hackbarth ……………………………………… 5%
John Lyon ………………………………………………. 0%
Douglas McKee ………………………………………. 1%
Clair Van Steenwyk………………………………….. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 33%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q9 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 56%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 44%
Q10 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 25%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 29%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by John McCain, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 15%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 30%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q13 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Jan Brewer, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 25%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 21%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q14 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Joe Arpaio, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 32%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 24%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 43%
Are not …………………………………………………… 57%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q20 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%