Raleigh, N.C. – The bloom is off Rick Santorum’s rose, and Republican primary voters are starting to warm up to Mitt Romney. Santorum is still more popular with Republicans nationally than Romney is, but sentiment has shifted toward Romney significantly since PPP’s last national survey last month.
Romney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and 43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from 64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. In February, Santorum had a 38-20 lead, with Gingrich at 17% and Paul at 13%, a shift of 21 points on the margin toward the former Massachusetts governor.
Were Gingrich to drop out of the race, 48% of his voters would move to Santorum and only a third to Romney, giving the former Pennsylvania senator a 41-40 edge over Romney, with Paul at 11%. That is down drastically, however, from last month, when Santorum whalloped Romney, 50-28, with Paul at 15%.
But Gingrich has pledged to stay in the race, and his image has actually improved a little as the spotlight has fallen off of him. The former speaker’s favorability margin is up from 42-44 to 47-42. Paul, on the other hand, only continues to decline as his race for delegates wanes; he is down from 35-51 to 31-57.
Sarah Palin is now once again better liked than any of the actual candidates. 68% see her favorably and only 20% unfavorably.
“The fact that Sarah Palin is now more popular than any of the Republican Presidential candidates is a real sign of the toll the campaign has taken on all of the contenders’ images,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Rick Santorum is struggling and would really need a major change in the race- like Newt Gingrich dropping out- to reverse his fortunes.”
PPP surveyed 734 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from March 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 31%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 53%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 47%
Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 36%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you think that Newt Gingrich should drop
out of the Republican Presidential race, or not?
He should…………… .46%
He should not……… .42%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 48%
Are not …………………………………………………… 52%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Do you think that Puerto Rico should become a
state, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 22%
It should not ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
