Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled New Hampshire in April, only Donald Trump proved competitive with Mitt Romney. Since then, Michele Bachmann has become Romney’s closest competitor, and now trails Romney in New Hampshire by a similar margin.  Romney holds the lead with 25% and is followed by Bachmann with 18%, Sarah Palin with 11%, Paul with 9%, Herman Cain and Rick Perry with 7%, Huntsman and Pawlenty with 6%, and Newt Gingrich with 4%.

Without Palin in the race, Romney retains his 7 point lead, taking 28% to Bachmann’s 21%, Perry and Paul’s 9%, Cain and Huntsman’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Gingrich’s 4%. If unlikely candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Paul Ryan were to enter the race, Romney would still lead. He would take 26% of the vote with 20% for Christie, 14% for Bachmann, 9% for Giuliani, 8% for Palin and Bush, 5% for Pawlenty, and 3% for Ryan.

If the Republican presidential primaries become a two person race between Romney and another candidate, Romney would still have the edge in New Hampshire.  Romney leads Bachmann most narrowly 49-37, leads Perry 53-28, Pawlenty 59-25, and Palin 65-26. However, Romney has a problem with Republicans who identify as members of the Tea Party, 33% of the New Hampshire GOP. They favor Bachmann over Romney 53-39.

Birthers have lost steam in New Hampshire since the release of Obama’s birth certificate, but they still have a significant presence. Now a majority, 54%, of New Hampshire Republicans think Obama was born in the US compared to 30% who don’t. This is up from only 35% who believed Obama was born in the US in April.

“It will be difficult for Romney to win the nomination without New Hampshire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney has the advantage, but his small lead in friendly territory suggests that his frontrunner status is vulnerable.”

PPP surveyed 341 New Hampshire Republican primary voters from June 30^th to July 5^th.  No interviews were conducted on July 3^rd or 4^th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q18 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 6%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%

Q19 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q20 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Jeb Bush, Chris
Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 8%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 20%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 9%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 26%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%

Q21 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 65%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q22 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 59%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q23 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q24 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q25 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q26 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 54%
No …………………………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 65%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%