Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney is headed for a dominant victory in Nevada on Saturday. PPP finds him polling at 50% to 25% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, and 8% for Rick Santorum.
Certainly in Nevada the Mormon vote will get a lot of attention and Romney leads Paul 78-14 with that group, which we project to account for 20% of the vote. But Romney’s dominance in Nevada goes well beyond that. He’s winning voters describing as ‘very conservative,’ a group he’s had huge amount of trouble with in other states, by a 43-34 margin over Gingrich. He’s also winning men, women, Hispanics, whites, and every age group that we track. This will be a pretty thorough victory for him.
The bad news for Gingrich isn’t just that’s headed for a distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. That’s an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels.
Santorum has great favorability numbers, with 64% of voters seeing him positively to only 23% with a negative opinion. That was the case in Florida as well, but it’s just not translating into much support for him.
It looks like Paul will be able to build on his 14% showing in Nevada in 2008, but catching up to Gingrich for 2nd place appears unlikely. His key will be turning out young voters at a higher rate than we’re projecting. With voters under 45 he leads Gingrich by a 23-20 margin. But with older ones he lags behind Newt 29-11.
Romney hits the 70% favorability mark in Nevada, something we’ve seen for him in very few states. Just 25% see him unfavorably. That’s partially due to an 89/8 standing with Mormons, but he’s at a still very strong 64/30 with non-Mormons as well.
“Mitt Romney is headed for a big win in Nevada on Saturday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The main suspense looks like it will be whether he can crack the 50% mark. He’s winning with virtually every demographic group we track.”
PPP surveyed 937 likely Republican caucus voters on February 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 1%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 79%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 21%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 Are you a Mormon, or not?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 20%
Not a Mormon…………………………………………. 80%
Q15 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 9%
