Raleigh, N.C. – The only two times in recent history that New Hampshire has sided with a presidential candidate by more than one point came in near-landslide victories for Democrats Bill Clinton (1996) and Barack Obama, who each won the state by ten points. In PPP’s latest poll, it appears Granite State voters could return to their indecisive ways next year. President Obama has fallen behind Mitt Romney, and against three others he holds smaller advantages than his 2008 victory margin.
Since the previous survey in late April to early May, Obama has gained greater esteem with Democrats and even slightly with Republicans. His fall from a 46-46 approval-disapproval spread to 46-49 has been entirely with independents, who approved 46-43 three months ago and disapprove 39-53 now.
The story plays out in the horseraces. Despite similar numbers in the two-party vote as last time, Obama trails Romney, 46-44, because independents have moved from a 44-all tie to 46-35 in Romney’s favor. And though the president still trounces Sarah Palin, 53-38, that is down from 56-34 based almost solely on declining support from nonpartisans. Three candidates not tested head-to-head with the president last time also come as close as if not closer than John McCain did to winning the state. Minnesotans Tim Pawlenty (48-41) and Michele Bachmann (49-42) trail by identical margins, and even Herman Cain equals McCain’s performance, down 49-39.
Romney outdoes his GOP rivals not only with independents, but also across the aisle. They take 7-8% of Democrats and let the president poach twice as many Republicans (14-17%), but Romney earns 12% of Democrats and loses only 11% of the GOP.
“Barack Obama’s slipped a lot from 2008 in New Hampshire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But at this point it looks like the GOP has to nominate Mitt Romney to take advantage of the President’s declining popularity.”
PPP surveyed 662 New Hampshire voters from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted on July 3rd or 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
