Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney came up short to John McCain in the New Hampshire primary when he first ran for President two years ago but a new Public Policy Polling survey finds him as the overwhelming favorite for 2012 at this very early stage.
Romney polls at 39%, 26 points ahead of second place finisher Sarah Palin at 13%. Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee tie for third at 11% and Ron Paul comes in fifth with 7%. Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Rick Santorum are all asterisks at this point, getting anywhere from 1 to 3%.
More immediately Kelly Ayotte is the frontrunner for the Republican Senate nomination this year. She has 43%, Bill Binnie comes in second at 19%, Jim Bender is getting 11%, Ovide Lamontagne is at 5%, and Tom Alciere comes in the rear at 1%.
Although there have been suggestions Ayotte could struggle to win support from more conservative primary voters she posts relatively identical numbers along ideological lines, getting 46% from moderates and 41% from conservatives.
“Democrats would like for someone other than Kelly Ayotte to win the Republican Senate nomination,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Paul Hodes’ chances of winning the seat would be much better with one of the other GOP candidates as nominee. But for now she looks like the strong favorite.”
In the Republican primary for Governor ‘undecided’ is the big winner with 46% of voters not sure who they will support yet. John Stephen leads the way with 29% to 15% for Karen Testerman and 10% for Jack Kimball.
PPP surveyed 642 New Hampshire Republican primary voters from April 17th to 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kelly Ayotte?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 38%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Binnie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Bender?
Favorable ………….. 9%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not Sure……………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 57%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kimball?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Testerman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 89%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Tom Alciere, Kelly Ayotte, Jim Bender, Bill
Binnie, and Ovide Lamontagne who would you
vote for?
Tom Alciere…………………………………………….. 1%
Kelly Ayotte…………………………………………….. 43%
Jim Bender……………………………………………… 11%
Bill Binnie……………………………………………….. 19%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Jack Kimball, John Stephen, and Karen
Testerman who would you vote for?
Jack Kimball……………………………………………. 10%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 29%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 15%
Undecided………………………………………………. 46%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum
who would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Conservative…………………………………………… 62%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q14
1st…………………………………………………………. 45%
2nd………………………………………………………… 55%
