Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has consistently found President Obama struggling in Nevada, which he won by over 12 points in 2008. Unless he lucks out by facing Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich this fall, it will be a tighter contest for Barack Obama than it was last time, but he has made serious strides in the state since PPP last polled there last October.
Obama now leads most likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney by eight points (51-43) after tying him at 46% five months ago. Ron Paul runs a point closer to the president (49-42), but is also down from a four-point deficit in the previous poll. Santorum, tested for the first time in the state, trails by 14 points (54-40), and Gingrich is down 12 points since October to a 15-point deficit (54-39). Obama leads by 39 to 44 points with Hispanics. He also tops by 15 to 22 points with independents, up from leads of six to 10 and a deficit of two points in October.
The reasons for Obama’s improvement over the last few months are two-fold: a boost in his own job approval rating and a decline in the personal popularity of the GOP field. Obama’s job performance numbers are up 13 points on the margin, from 44% approving and 53% disapproving to 50-46. Meanwhile, Romney is down 14 points from 45% favorable and 44% unfavorable to 38-51. None of the others do any better. Paul stands at 35-53, Gingrich at 27-62, and Santorum at 25-64.
If Vice President Joe Biden and Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval were Obama’s and Romney’s respective running mates, it would only pad the GOP gap by two points; they would still lag 50-44. Sandoval is quite popular, with 46% approving and 31% disapproving of his work in office, but the top of the ticket matters more to voters. Obama still leads almost 2:1 with Hispanic voters even with Sandoval on the GOP ticket.
“Nevada really captures how the Presidential race has shifted over the last five months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s more popular, Mitt Romney’s less popular, and this is looking like much less of a swing state.”
PPP surveyed 553 Nevada voters from March 29th to April 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Brian
Sandoval, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Sandoval …………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 46%
Disapprove………… 31%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%