Raleigh, N.C. – While Mitt Romney’s national lead in the Republican presidential primary is far from overwhelming, he achieves a landslide at home. In Massachusetts, Romney garners nearly five times the support of his nearest competitor, with 49% of the vote to 10% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Newt Gingrich, and just 1% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney’s base lies with moderate Republicans, where he pulls 55% of the vote. However, Romney also runs strong with even very conservative Republicans, where Romney still enjoys a large 40% plurality of the vote.
If Palin does not enter the race, Romney picks up much of her support; he wins over a majority of the primary electorate with 56% to 12% for Backmann, 8% for Cain, 6% for Gingrich and Paul, 4% for Pawlenty, and 1% for Huntsman. Whether Palin runs or not, Romney should have little trouble winning his home state in the Republican primaries.
If the Republicans aim to reclaim the Senate in 2012, they may need to hold on to Massachusetts. Scott Brown remains strong with the general electorate and, unlike many other establishment Republicans in 2010, is also strong with the primary electorate. Ideologically, 70% feel that Brown is “about right” compared to only 23% who feel he is too liberal. On top of this, a solid majority, 65% of Republican voters, would prefer Brown to a generic “more conservative challenger,” who would only win 25%.
These primary numbers compare quite favorably with fellow New England Republican Olympia Snowe, against whom 58% of Maine Republicans would prefer a more conservative challenger. Even with these numbers, Snowe right now leads actual potential candidates, so it is doubtful that any actual primary challenger could come close to toppling Brown. So far, Brown has managed to effectively straddle general election strength with appeal to his base.
PPP surveyed 244 usual Massachusetts Republic primary voters from June 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-6.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 52%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 47%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 60%
Unfavorable……….. 31%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 78%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q6 Do you think Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 23%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q7 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q8 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q9 If the Republican primary for Senate next year
was between Scott Brown and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 65%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 49%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
