Raleigh, N.C. – There is no denying that Mitt Romney has a more moderate image than many of his potential competitors for the GOP presidential nomination next year. Because of that, he tends to do the best or second-best against President Obama in every state, particularly in the coastal blue states. He also usually leads in those states’ Republican primaries. His problem with conservatives may ultimately keep him from winning the nomination in an electorate dominated overwhelmingly by conservative voters faced with candidates trying to out-Tea-Party each other, but at least for now, he is strong in the early tests of the GOP race in the Northeast and West, including Colorado.
Colorado Republicans give Romney a very tenuous lead, with 19% to Mike Huckabee’s and Sarah Palin’s 16%. Newt Gingrich follows closely with 12% over Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 7%, John Thune’s 4%, and Mitch Daniels’ 3%. With the top four and almost the top five candidates within the margin of error of the lead and just as many (16%) undecided or preferring someone else as support either of the second-place candidates, the race in this state is as wide open as anywhere.
Palin runs a close second, at 17% to Romney’s 18%, with the huge 72% who call themselves conservative, but Romney just outdoes Huckabee, 22-20, with moderates, with whom Palin gets only 10%. This dichotomy is seen in almost every state, and is propping up Palin and depressing Romney’s support. Rarely does Romney even get second place with conservatives, let alone first.
Unlike in many states, where Huckabee or Palin are best liked personally, Romney has the highest favorability rating (60%) and the best net favorable margin (+37), followed closely by Huckabee (59%, +35), Palin (59%, +27), and Gingrich (54%, +27). Palin does best with conservatives (70-22), and Romney second-worst (63-21), but the disparity between their ratings with moderates (Palin’s 30-60 to Romney’s 55-24) tells the story.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Colorado Republican primary voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 16%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 72%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
