Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s approval rating in Wisconsin is unchanged from when PPP last polled the state two months ago. 44% still approve, and 51% still disapprove. But of the 25 states PPP has polled this year that Obama should either win or hopes to play in, only four see him worse than the Badger State—North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa, all of which give him a 9-point net negative rating, only two points worse than Wisconsin. The president now leads his top challenger, Mitt Romney, by only three points here, and he tops all but one of the other five tested by smaller margins than the 14 points by which he beat John McCain in 2008.
Obama leads Romney, 46-43, down a hair from a five-point advantage (47-42) in August. He has also declined against newly risen Herman Cain, from a 14-point lead (50-36) to half that (49-42). Obama leads Ron Paul by nine, 48-39; Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann each by 11 (50-39 and 51-40, respectively); and Newt Gingrich by 14 (52-38).
All of these changes except the one against Cain are statistically insignificant, but it still makes the state closer than the president would like. Then again, Obama’s huge 2008 win was unprecedented in recent history. Al Gore won this swing state by less than 0.3 points, and John Kerry by 0.4. Obama won North Carolina by more than that. But both Kerry and Gore lost overall, and Wisconsin is not a state Obama can afford to lose.
In most states, the impact of the independent vote is overblown, but here they make up almost a third of voters. While exit polls report that Obama won them by 19 points in 2008, they favor Romney by four now.
“Wisconsin is looking more and more like it might return to the swing state column next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama is persistently unpopular there and the recall elections over the summer showed how closely divided the state is.”
PPP surveyed 1,170 Wisconsin voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
