Raleigh, N.C. – Even as all of the Republican presidential candidates remain less liked than the unpopular president, some of them are creeping closer to Obama in the national popular vote—driving home the idea that the election will be more a referendum on the incumbent than on the inevitably disliked GOP nominee.
Obama is tied with Mitt Romney at 45%, the same as last month. Polled for the first time, new heavyweight contender Rick Perry trails by only six points, 49-43. Michele Bachmann has slipped a little, now behind 50-42, versus 48-41 in July. Herman Cain lags, 49-39, up from 48-36 previously. Finally, Sarah Palin, about whom buzz is increasing of late, still does worst of the president’s potential foes, losing 53-40, though that is an improvement on her 53-37 deficit in the last poll. The president leads Romney by nine with independents; Bachmann, Cain, and Perry by 24; and Palin by 29.
Romney maintains his standing against the president despite voters seeing him less favorably by seven points on the margin compared to last month, moving from 36% favorable and 42% unfavorable to 35-48. All those who have made up their minds about Cain in the last month have moved against him, from 24-33 to 24-40. A third of voters see Perry positively, and 47% negatively. Bachmann remains the second least popular, at 34-52 (29-45), eclipsed only by Palin’s 32-62, actually up a tick from 29-62.
Poll respondents report having voted for Obama over John McCain by only four points, less than his actual seven-point victory, meaning the projected turnout is not quite as favorable to the president’s team as it was three years ago. In that sense, only Romney gives Obama a tougher run for his money than did McCain, who lost in a near landslide.
“Rick Perry’s momentum in the Republican field is the best thing that’s happened to Barack Obama lately,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The President would have an easier time winning reelection against him than Mitt Romney.”
PPP surveyed 700 American voters from August 18th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
