Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Kansas poll finds Pat Roberts badly damaged by his recent primary contest, and leading for reelection largely thanks to divided opposition. Roberts has emerged from the primary with only a 27% approval rating to 44% of voters who disapprove of him. That represents an 8 point net decline from his already poor numbers in February, when he stood at 29/38.
Roberts is polling at only 32% for November, followed by Democrat Chad Taylor at 25%, independent Greg Orman at 23%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 3%. As weak as a 32% standing is for an incumbent, that still gives him a pretty clear lead due to his opponents pretty much splitting the anti-Roberts vote evenly. But if one of them was to pull out Roberts would really be in trouble.
In a head to head contest with Taylor, Roberts would lead just 43/39, down from a 48/32 advantage in February. And in a head to head contest with Orman, Roberts trails 43/33. Orman would take 30% of the Republican vote while losing only 11% of Democrats to Roberts, and would lead by 41 points with independents at 54/13. Orman is still relatively unknown- only 36% name recognition- but is at a 24/12 favorability spread among those who do have an opinion about him. He is seen favorably by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
In the race for Governor we continue to find Democratic challenger Paul Davis with a small lead over Sam Brownback, 39/37, with Libertarian candidate Keen Umbehr at 9%. This is actually an unusual instance where the Libertarian candidate is helping the Republican- Umbehr supporters say their second choice would be Davis by a 65/21 margin over Brownback, and when you reallocate those folks to their second choice Davis’ lead expands to 44/39. Umbehr’s presence in the race is actually doing Brownback a favor by splitting the opposition to him some.
“Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback are both very unpopular,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Those things are combining to make it a much more interesting election year than usual in Kansas.”
PPP surveyed 903 likely voters from August 14th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sam Brownback’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Sam Brownback, Democrat Paul Davis, and
Libertarian Keen Umbehr. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 37%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 39%
Keen Umbehr………………………………………….. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Horse race, with Umbehr supporters allocated
to whether they’d vote for Brownback or Davis
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 39%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Orman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chad Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q9 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Republican Pat Roberts, Democrat Chad
Taylor, independent Greg Orman, and
Libertarian Randall Batson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 32%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 25%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 23%
Randall Batson ……………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were just
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat Chad
Taylor, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 43%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were just
Republican Pat Roberts and independent Greg
Orman, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 33%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Jean
Schodorf. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Kris Kobach ……………………………………………. 43%
Jean Schodorf…………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Derek Schmidt and Democrat A.J.
Kotich. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Derek Schmidt ………………………………………… 49%
A.J. Kotich………………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 The candidates for state Treasurer are
Republican Ron Estes and Democrat Carmen
Alldritt. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Ron Estes ………………………………………………. 49%
Carmen Alldritt ………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q15 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Republican Ken Selzer and Democrat
Dennis Anderson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Ken Selzer ……………………………………………… 43%
Dennis Anderson …………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q16 Do you think Pat Roberts spends enough time
in Kansas, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 18%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q17 Do you think Pat Roberts considers his home
Kansas or Washington, D.C.?
Kansas…………………………………………………… 30%
Washington, D.C……………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 20%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q24 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%