Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans have held the Texas governorship since George W. Bush ousted the late Ann Richards 16 years ago, but it looks like Bush’s successor, Rick Perry, is facing by far the closest contest with a Democratic challenger during that time. Since PPP last polled the race exactly four months ago, former Houston Mayor Bill White has brought incumbent Rick Perry from a 48-42 lead into a 43-43 tie. White has done that by reversing a 47-36 Perry lead among independents to a 42-36 lead for himself.
In most states, in this Republican election year, not only is the Republican leading among independents, but he is drawing more crossover support than the Democratic candidate. Bill White continues to buck that trend, as he did in February’s poll, by garnering 15% of Texas Republicans to Perry’s 10% of Democrats. Both candidates have seen more of their own party’s voters go into the undecided column, bringing their partisan support from the mid-80% range to the mid-70% range, with White still holding more of his own base than Perry does.
Despite his precarious situation at home, many believe Perry has national ambitions. Only 10% of his state’s voters, however, would like to see him run for president in 2012, to 69% who would explicitly not want him to make that jump. The feeling cuts across party lines, with even 61% of Republicans wanting him to stay home. PPP will release numbers on Perry’s standing in the 2012 Republican field later in the week.
“Bill White has the potential to give Democrats their biggest bright spot on what will probably overall be a bad election night in November,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “A win in the Texas Governor race would be huge for the party and instantaneously make White one of the most prominent Democrats in the country.”
PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters from June 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not Sure……………. 39%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry …………… 43%
Bill White…………….. 43%
Undecided…………… 14%
Q4 Do you think that Rick Perry should run for
President in 2012?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 10%
No …………………………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%
Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 46%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
