Raleigh, N.C. – If Rhode Island’s most recent ex-governor chooses to make a bid to challenge freshman Senator Sheldon Whitehouse next year, he would be an instant favorite to claim the Republican nomination.
Carcieri gets almost half the votes, with 44% over four others knotted way back at 12% each: Scott Avedisian, Buddy Cianci, John Loughlin, and John Robitaille. Allan Fung gets 6%, Catherine Taylor 2%, and Giovanni Cicione less than 1%.
An earlier release showed that Carcieri would be perhaps the weakest candidate against Whitehouse, losing by 17 points—the same as Loughlin, but the state representative is far less known than the former governor. Avedisian placed only ten points behind Whitehouse, and Robitaille 11.
In Carcieri’s absence, the candidates separate themselves, and the GOP is more likely to nominate a strong candidate to face the incumbent Democrat. In the narrower field, Robitaille benefits most, jumping up to 31%, with Loughlin at 24%, Avedisian at 21%, Fung at 14%, Cicione at 3%, and Taylor still at 2%.
41% of the voters in this primary are self-identified independents, and only 57% Republicans. If this proportion holds, the state’s huge share of unaffiliated voters could have a big impact on the outcome of the race, though at the moment, there is little difference in who they favor for the Senate nomination compared to Republicans.
Though there is more difference across party lines in the presidential contest, Mitt Romney has such a dominant lead that it will not likely be contested. Romney has strong regional appeal, trouncing the competition here, as well as in first-primary New Hampshire and his own Massachusetts in recent PPP polls. Most of the other candidates are not showing very strongly in their own states, let alone neighboring ones.
Romney has 39% of the vote to Mike Huckabee’s 15%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, and Sarah Palin’s 10%, with four others in low single digits. Generally someone who does better with moderates than conservatives, Romney actually has a slightly larger share of the GOP, 41%, than independents (39%). Gingrich is in a distant second with the base, at 17%, but gets only 7% of independents, with whom Huckabee places second at 21% (to only 12% among the GOP).
PPP surveyed 250 Rhode Island Republican primary voters from February 16th to 22nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-6.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Avedisian?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Carcieri?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 81%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Cianci?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Loughlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Robitaille?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q11 Given the choices of Scott Avedisian, Don
Carcieri, Buddy Cianci, Giovanni Cicione, Allan
Fung, John Loughlin, John Robitaille, and
Catherine Taylor who would you most like to
see as the Republican Senate candidate next
year?
Scott Avedisian ……………………………………….. 12%
Don Carcieri……………………………………………. 44%
Buddy Cianci…………………………………………… 12%
Giovanni Cicione……………………………………… 0%
Allan Fung………………………………………………. 6%
John Loughlin …………………………………………. 12%
John Robitaille ………………………………………… 12%
Catherine Taylor………………………………………. 2%
Q12 If the choices were just Scott Avedisian,
Giovanni Cicione, Allan Fung, John Loughlin,
John Robitaille, and Catherine Taylor who
would you most like to see as the Republican
Senate candidate next year?
Scott Avedisian ……………………………………….. 21%
Giovanni Cicione……………………………………… 3%
Allan Fung………………………………………………. 14%
John Loughlin …………………………………………. 24%
John Robitaille ………………………………………… 31%
Catherine Taylor………………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 57%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 41%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
