Polls

Republicans Would Prefer President Clinton

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsLouisianans have a better opinion of former President Clinton than they do of President Obama; 45:27. Obama doesn’t fare much better in his home state of Illinois, 39 to 32% of voters prefer him over his Democratic predecessor.

The majority of those who favor Clinton over Obama are Republicans.75% of Clinton supporters in Louisiana voted John McCain in 2008. In Illinois 61% of Clinton’s support is found from those who voted for McCain in 2008.

Clinton’s strength in Louisiana is directly related to the Republican strength in Louisiana. 56% of respondents in Louisiana voted for McCain, while only 36% of respondents in Illinois voted for McCain, suggesting that Republicans so dislike Obama that they would prefer President Clinton. Republicans’ opinion of Obama is unwavering, 85% disapprove of the President in Illinois and 84% in Louisiana.

In Louisiana, an endorsement from the President will likely hurt a candidate. Clinton’s endorsement, however, would be less harmful. 55% of voters in Louisiana say they would be less likely to support a candidate supported by Obama. But 53% of voters said an endorsement from Clinton would either make them more likely to support a candidate or not sway their decision.

In Illinois both Presidents could aid candidates, but still the Democratic Party would be better advised to send the former President before sending the hometown boy. Fewer voters say Clinton’s endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate 38:40. But more importantly Clinton’s support has a more positive effect amongst Illinois Democrats 72:64 and Republicans; 32:22.

“Voters have short memories and are focused on the here and now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans and some Democrats are expressing their anger and frustration about the economy and oil spill with Obama and reminiscing about the ‘good ol’ days’ with Clinton. Voters project their feelings about the current state of the country—good or bad—on Obama”

PPP surveyed 492 Louisiana voters 552 Illinois voters from June 12th– 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Illinois Survey Results:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 53%
Disapprove………… 41%
Not Sure……………. 6%

Q2 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by President Obama, or
does it not make a difference either way?
More likely………………………………………………. 26%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 40%
Doesn’t make a difference either way …………. 34%

Q3 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Bill Clinton, or does it
not make a difference either way?
More likely………………………………………………. 25%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 38%
Doesn’t make a difference either way …………. 37%

Q4 Do you have a higher opinion of Bill Clinton or
Barack Obama?
Bill Clinton………………………………………………. 32%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q5 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%

Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29……………………………………………………. 6%
30 to 45…………………………………………………… 25%
46 to 65…………………………………………………… 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Louisiana Survey Results:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by President Obama, or
does it not make a difference either way?
More likely………………………………………………. 22%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 55%
Doesn’t make a difference either way …………. 24%

Q3 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Bill Clinton, or does it
not make a difference either way?
More likely………………………………………………. 23%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 47%
Doesn’t make a difference either way …………. 30%

Q4 Do you have a higher opinion of Bill Clinton or
Barack Obama?
Bill Clinton………………………………………………. 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q5 Who did you vote for president last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 56%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 35%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 11%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 46%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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