Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled the presidential race in Ohio last December, the state’s electoral votes looked in danger of going back to the GOP after President Obama took the state over John McCain by less than five points in 2008. His party’s fortunes in a lot of blue-collar, heavily white Midwestern and Northeastern states had soured, and there was grumbling even within his own base. But a lot of that has abated as Democrats are reengaged, and independents are turning back Democrats’ way. The president now leads four potential Republican nominees by margins greater than his 2008 victory. Obama tops Mitt Romney, 46-40, after leading only 44-42 in the previous survey. He leads Mike Huckabee, 48-41 (45-44), Newt Gingrich 50-38 (47-41), and Sarah Palin 52-36 (49-42).
The parties are pretty much polarized, so the differences come with independents. Romney is now the only Republican to lead the president with independents, and barely (39-37, down slightly from 40-34). Huckabee had a 42-39 lead with them last poll, but now trails 44-36. Palin has declined with these voters from a 45-42 deficit to a whopping 49-32, and Gingrich from trailing 40-38 to 45-30.
The president’s approval rating is up eight points on the margin since the December poll, when he was at 42-49. Now, bellwether Ohioans barely approve of his job performance (47-46), mirroring his standing nationwide. Independents still give him negative marks (39-49), but that is a slight improvement from last time. His ground has been made up mostly with his own party, lending credence to the galvanization of Democrats by John Kasich’s policies as well as a national dampening of some displeasure Democrats showed with the president during the lame duck session of Congress.
Huckabee and Romney were better liked than the president a few months ago, but all the Republicans are now in worse shape. Huckabee had a net +5 favorability rating then, but has dropped to -6. Romney has a -10 (-3), Palin a -28 (-15), and Gingrich a -32 (-21).
“Our polls in states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado that George W. Bush won in 2004 and Barack Obama won in 2008 are all finding Obama in a position to win again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If that holds up he gets reelected easily.”
PPP surveyed 559 Ohio voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 24%
Unfavorable……….. 56%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 42%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 59%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
