Raleigh, N.C. – If there were any question that President Obama’s release of his long-form birth certificate two weeks ago effectively ended Donald Trump’s brief 15 minutes at the top of the Republican presidential heap, PPP’s latest national survey of Republican primary voters shows that Trump has fallen from first place by nine points in last month’s poll to a tie for fifth, barely ahead of the seventh-place candidate.
In April, PPP found Trump with sole possession of the lead for Republican voters’ preferences for the nomination. He topped Mike Huckabee 26-17. But now Huckabee is back in a narrow lead with 19% to Mitt Romney’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, Sarah Palin’s 12%, Trump’s and Ron Paul’s 8%, Michele Bachmann’s 7%, and Tim Pawlenty’s 5%.
34% of these voters still do not believe the president was born in this country. But that is down from 51% in the February poll. Trump’s advantage with the birthers has eroded even further. Last month, PPP asked a different question—whether Republicans would vote for a candidate who affirmed Obama’s citizenship. But while Trump led 37-13 over Huckabee and Palin with the 23% who then said they would not vote for an avowed non-birther, he now gets no more support among the remaining birthers than he does among the 48% near-majority who believe Obama was born in the country. He pulls 9% with the former and 8% with the latter. In fact, it is now Palin and Bachmann who do almost twice as well with birthers as non-birthers. Romney’s candidacy also runs up against a wall with people who still refuse to acknowledge the president’s birthplace—he leads 22-19 over Huckabee with non-birthers but is in fourth at 13% with birthers.
“Donald Trump had a meteoric rise to the top of the GOP Presidential field and has fallen back down just as quickly,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans voters burned out on him pretty fast, especially after the birther issue lost some of its potency with the release of President Obama’s birth certificate.”
PPP surveyed 610 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q7 What if Donald Trump didn’t run and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q8 What if neither Mike Huckabee nor Donald
Trump ran and the candidates for President in
2012 were just Michele Bachmann, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q9 What if Mike Huckabee did run but neither
Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump did and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q10 What if neither Mike Huckabee, nor Sarah
Palin, nor Donald Trump ran for President and
the candidates were just Michele Bachmann,
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and
Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 26%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q11 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
