Raleigh, N.C. – It will probably come as no surprise to anyone that the Republicans are a near mortal lock to retain Mississippi’s governor’s mansion when Haley Barbour leaves office next year. Except for Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, all the candidates are disliked and unknown to at least three of every five voters. But the state’s Democrats and independents are so conservative that despite there being an equal number of Democrats as Republicans, any of the three major GOP candidates ought to easily win in November.
Bryant is seen favorably by 32% of voters and unfavorably by 27%. The 41% with no opinion makes him a beloved household name compared to Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree’s 61% (12-28 favorable-to-unfavorable margin), businessmen Bill Luckett’s and Dave Dennis’ 65% (each 13-22), and retired general Hudson Holliday’s 69% (7-24). But even if voters do not know who these candidates are, and those who do say they dislike them, voters still prefer the Republicans across the board.
Bryant already has majority support against either DuPree (56-25) or Luckett (53-27). But Dennis also leads DuPree, 41-28, and Luckett 43-25. Holliday has the lowest profile, and therefore leads DuPree only 37-28 and Luckett by an almost identical 38-28. No Democrat can top 28%, but the more voters know the Republicans, the more willing they are to vote for them. Bryant is pulling 23% or 28% of Democrats and leading with independents by 22 or 23 points. Dennis and Holliday are doing not quite as well with Democrats but a little better with independents.
There is some chance for the eventual Democratic nominee to make up ground by consolidating support from African-Americans, who make up a third of voters, much more than in most states. The best showing is DuPree’s 63% against Dennis. But even boosting that to 90% leaves DuPree four points down, and if the undecided whites and others fall proportionately to where they are now, he trails 59-41, because blacks are already more in his corner than whites are in Dennis’.
“It’s never a good idea for a politician to start measuring the drapes seven months before an election but Phil Bryant is an overwhelming favorite right now to be the next Governor of Mississippi,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 817 Mississippi voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Bryant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Dennis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Johnny DuPree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hudson Holliday?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Luckett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Phil Bryant and Democrat Johnny
DuPree, who would you vote for?
Phil Bryant ……………………………………………… 56%
Johnny DuPree ……………………………………….. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Phil Bryant and Democrat Bill
Luckett, who would you vote for?
Phil Bryant ……………………………………………… 53%
Bill Luckett ……………………………………………… 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Dave Dennis and Democrat
Johnny DuPree, who would you vote for?
Dave Dennis …………………………………………… 41%
Johnny DuPree ……………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Dave Dennis and Democrat Bill
Luckett, who would you vote for?
Dave Dennis …………………………………………… 43%
Bill Luckett ……………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 32%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Hudson Holliday and Democrat
Johnny DuPree, who would you vote for?
Hudson Holliday………………………………………. 37%
Johnny DuPree ……………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Hudson Holliday and Democrat Bill
Luckett, who would you vote for?
Hudson Holliday………………………………………. 38%
Bill Luckett ……………………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 34%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 11%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 33%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
