Raleigh, N.C. – In two and a half months since PPP last polled on it, the picture more than two years out from the next Virginia gubernatorial race is unsurprisingly stagnant. Republicans Bill Bolling, the lieutenant governor, and Ken Cuccinelli, the attorney general, have slightly improved voters’ views of them, and still lead somewhat unpopular out-of-office Democrats Terry McAuliffe and Tom Perriello, albeit by slim margins.
Bolling is less known than the controversial Cuccinelli (two-thirds have no opinion of the former but only 35% of the latter), but leads each of the Democrats by two points more than Cuccinelli. Bolling tops McAuliffe, 38-33 (38-34 in May), and Perriello, 39-32 (39-34). But Cuccinelli bests McAuliffe only 41-38 (41-36), and Perriello, 41-36 (41-37).
The difference is that Cuccinelli is more polarizing than Bolling. McAuliffe and Perriello lock up more Democrats and perform five to seven points better with independents against the A.G. than against Bob McDonnell’s number two. But Cuccinelli maintains more GOP support in both matchups than does Bolling, and both Republicans keep more of their party’s voters in line than do the Democrats. Part of that is more undecided Democrats than Republicans, but part is also that in three of the four matchups, Cuccinelli and Bolling earn slightly more crossover support than do the Democrats.
In May, all four prospective candidates were seen negatively by voters, but since then, both Republicans have edged into positive favorability territory. Bolling has upped his marks from 14% favorable and 18% unfavorable to 19-16, and Cuccinelli from 31-39 to 34-32. Meanwhile, both Democrats remain equally as disliked as before, with Perriello at 16-20 from 17-21 and McAuliffe at 15-26 from 16-27.
“Obviously this race is a ways off but Republicans start with a modest advantage and that’s about what you would expect in Virginia,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 500 Virginia voters from July 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 38%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 39%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 41%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 41%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q15
276………………………………………………………… 5%
434………………………………………………………… 9%
540………………………………………………………… 25%
703………………………………………………………… 21%
757………………………………………………………… 21%
804………………………………………………………… 18%
