Raleigh, N.C. – Montana once again appears likely to grace the GOP with its three electoral votes, but only by a modest margin. All Republican contenders have the edge over Obama. Mitt Romney performs strongest, leading Obama 49-41 (50-39 when we last polled there in November). Michele Bachmann has the edge, 48-42; Herman Cain, 46-41; Sarah Palin 48-44 (47-45); and Tim Pawlenty, 45-41. All lead by a larger margin than McCain’s three-point victory in 2008. These larger leads can be explained in part by a more Republican electorate. Among registered voters polled in Montana, voters supported McCain in 2008, 50-41. Obama can improve his chances in Montana if he is able to bring out his 2008 voters once again.
The presidential race is highly polarized in Montana, with crossover support in the single digits for every candidate in all matchups. Depending on the matchup, independents either split evenly between the two parties or favor the Republican by a narrow margin. This is not a recipe for a Democratic victory in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats 39-31. Obama is succeeding in locking in his base, but will have to win over independents and a few Republicans to take Montana. Yesterday, we showed Jon Tester tied for re-election even while winning independents by double digits.
Montana voters do not like either Obama or his Republican opponents. Only 43% approve of Obama, compared to 54% who disapprove (41-54 in November). Cain is most popular, rating 25% favorable and 27% unfavorable, followed by Bachmann (34-40), Palin (41-51), Pawlenty (22-36), and Romney (33-48). Romney’s numbers are particularly poor, considering he is the most popular GOP candidate nationally. But Montanans are still more apt to vote for him than the others.
“Montana was one of the closest states that Barack Obama lost in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s regressed there over the last couple years and he’s probably not going to add it to his column in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 819 Montana voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
