Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans have slightly increased their advantage over Democrats in the generic Congressional ballot, from 46-43 last month to 47-42 now.
This is despite the fact Democrats have improved their numbers among independents, from a 26-44 deficit against Republican Congressmen last month to only 31-37 now. Both parties have boosted their support among their respective bases, with a full 92% of Republican voters and 86% of Democratic voters ready to cast their ballots for the Congressional candidate of their own party.
Though independents are sour on the direction in which the Democratic Party is headed (33% approve to 47% disapprove), they are even more down on the Republican Party (18 to 49). To boot, only 52% of Republicans and 47% of conservatives report satisfaction with the trajectory of the GOP, versus 83% of Democrats and 82% of liberals who are happy with the Democratic Party.
The Democrats’ fate could be worse than these numbers suggest, though, if the electorate is dominated by Republicans. There is little difference between voter enthusiasm among liberals and conservatives, but 72% of Republicans are excited to go to the polls this year, while only 62% of Democrats and 52% of independents say the same.
“The Republican Party isn’t popular among voters generally or even among the Republican faithful, but because Democrats are in power, they’re bearing the brunt of voters’ unhappiness with politicians and the state of our country in general,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is magnified by the likelihood that Republicans will be more motivated to vote in November than Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 622 registered voters from April 9th to 11th. The margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the election for Congress was today would
you vote for a Democrat or a Republican? If a
Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the midterm election this fall? If you are very
excited, press 1. If somewhat excited, press 2.
If not very excited, press 3. If you’re not sure,
press 4.
Very Excited……………………………………………. 64%
Somewhat Excited …………………………………… 21%
Not Very Excited……………………………………… 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the direction
of the Democratic Party? If you approve, press
1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the direction
of the Republican Party? If you approve, press
1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you think Republicans will take control of
the House of Representatives this fall? If yes,
press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 40%
No …………………………………………………………. 41%
Not Sure………………………………………………… 19%
Q6 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 45%
Obama…………………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/don’t remember ………………….. 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other……………………………….. 24%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
