Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Arkansas poll finds Republicans leading across the board in the state’s key races for this year, led by Tom Cotton with a 43/38 advantage over Mark Pryor and Asa Hutchinson with a 44/38 lead over Mike Ross at the top of the ticket.
Cotton’s lead is up slightly from 41/39 on our previous poll. Voters aren’t in love with him- 40% see him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. But Pryor continues to have tough approval ratings, with 36% giving him good marks to 51% who disapprove. Both candidates are receiving 77% of the vote from within their own party but Cotton has a substantial advantage with independents, getting 53% of their vote to 20% for Pryor.
The Governor’s race is pretty steady with Hutchinson’s 44/38 lead little changed from 43/38 in early August. Hutchinson has positive favorability numbers (43/35) while voters are pretty closely divided in their feelings about Ross (35/36). The strong GOP advantage with independent voters carries over to this race too- 48% support Hutchinson to 23% for Ross.
Barack Obama has a 31/62 approval rating in Arkansas, including 13/80 with independents, and that’s probably making things hard for the Democratic ticket in the state.
The news isn’t all bad for progressives in Arkansas. The state’s initiative to raise the minimum wage is headed for overwhelming passage- 68% of voters are behind it compared to only 24% who are opposed. It’s a rare thing we even find with support across party lines- Democrats give it its most emphatic support at 88/7 but Republicans (56/35) and independents (54/36) are behind it as well.
“Arkansas is leaning toward supporting the GOP ticket right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The silver lining for Democrats is that they’re only down by 5 or 6 points in the key races, leaving some room for a comeback. It’s not like 2010 when Blanche Lincoln was down by 20 at this point.”
PPP surveyed 1,453 likely voters from September 18th to 21st. The margin of error for the sample is +/-2.6 %.80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Pyror’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Cotton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Mark Pryor, Republican Tom Cotton,
Green party candidate Mark Swaney, and
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 38%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 43%
Mark Swaney ………………………………………….. 3%
Nathan LaFrance …………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Pryor or Cotton
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 39%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mike Beebe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 63%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Ross?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Asa Hutchinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mike Ross, Republican Asa
Hutchinson, Green Party candidate J. Joshua
Drake, and Libertarian Frank Gilbert, who
would you vote for?
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 38%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 44%
J. Joshua Drake………………………………………. 2%
Frank Gilbert …………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Ross or
Hutchinson
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 40%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat John Burkhalter, Republican Tim
Griffin, and Libertarian Christopher Olson. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
John Burkhalter……………………………………….. 36%
Tim Griffin ………………………………………………. 42%
Christopher Olson……………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Susan Inman, Republican Mark
Martin, and Libertarian Jacob Holloway. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Susan Inman…………………………………………… 32%
Mark Martin…………………………………………….. 43%
Jacob Holloway……………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Nate Steel, Republican Leslie
Rutledge, and Libertarian Aaron Cash. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Nate Steel ………………………………………………. 35%
Leslie Rutledge ……………………………………….. 41%
Aaron Cash…………………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Regina Stewart Hampton, Republican Andrea
Lea, and Libertarian Brian Leach. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Regina Stewart Hampton………………………….. 33%
Andrea Lea …………………………………………….. 37%
Brian Leach…………………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q15 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Karen Garcia, Republican Dennis
Milligan, and Libertarian Chris Hayes. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Karen Garcia…………………………………………… 31%
Dennis Milligan ……………………………………….. 39%
Chris Hayes ……………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 The candidates for State Land Commissioner
are Democrat Mark Robertson, Republican
John Thurston, and Libertarian Elvis Presley. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Mark Robertson ………………………………………. 33%
John Thurston…………………………………………. 38%
Elvis Presley …………………………………………… 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q17 The Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative would
increase the state’s minimum wage from $6.25
to $7.50 per hour in 2015, $8 an hour in 2016,
and $8.50 an hour in 2017. If the election was
today, would you vote for or against the
Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative?
For ………………………………………………………… 68%
Against…………………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q18 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Boozman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q20 If the candidates for U.S. Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Mike Beebe and Republican John
Boozman, who would you vote for?
Mike Beebe…………………………………………….. 49%
John Boozman………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q25 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q26 Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should run …………………………………. 45%
Think he should not …………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Pryor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q29 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 9%
Q30 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q32 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 30%
Q33 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q34 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q35 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
