Raleigh, N.C. – In what is so far a low-information race for U.S. Senate in Texas, the GOP continues to have an early lead in any of what amount to generic matchups between little-known Democrats and little-known Republicans in a red state.
David Dewhurst looks like the strongest option to hold the seat for Republicans at this point, and former Rep. Chet Edwards on the other side of the aisle, but that is mainly because they are the best-known from their respective parties. 60% of voters have an opinion of the three-term Lieutenant Governor, compared to 38% of former Edwards, 31% of each former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R) and former Army Lt. General Ricardo Sanchez (D), and only 29% of former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R). For what the favorability ratings are worth with such low name recognition, Dewhurst is seen the best, with 28% favorable toward him and 32% unfavorable, followed by Sanchez at 13-18, Edwards at 16-22, Leppert at 10-21, and Cruz at 9-20.
Republicans have an eight-point identification advantage over Democrats in the Lone Star State, and the GOP candidates have leads of four to 15 points over their rivals. Dewhurst leads Edwards by eight (43-35), and Sanchez by 15 (47-32). Leppert tops Edwards by six (39-33), and Sanchez by nine (41-32). Cruz edges Edwards by four (37-33), and Sanchez by 11 (42-31).
34-40% of them are undecided, but independents are generally leaning slightly Democrats’ way, except in the Dewhurst-Sanchez matchup. But on top of their identification advantage, the Republicans are generally doing a better job of winning crossover support from Democrats than the other way around.
“Republicans have the early advantage here as you would expect in a red state like Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “None of the candidates are very well known yet though so it’s hard to say how the race will ultimately play out.”
PPP surveyed 569 Texas voters from September 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ricardo Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Chet
Edwards, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Ricardo
Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 42%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Chet Edwards, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 43%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Ricardo Sanchez, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 47%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Chet
Edwards, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 39%
Chet Edwards …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat
Ricardo Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 41%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
